Mo Liumei, Liu Zhenhao, Cao Wenjing, Gong Hanxian, Wu Jincheng, Lin Mingzhuo, Pan Wei
Department of Geriatrics, The Affiliated Foshan Women and Children Hospital, Guangdong Medical University, Foshan, China.
Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Pingxiang People's Hospital, Pingxiang, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Jul 9;13:1576527. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1576527. eCollection 2025.
Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a common chronic upper gastrointestinal disorder that causes discomfort and increases the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma. The global burden of GERD has steadily increased, establishing it as a critical public health issue. This study systematically evaluated the global, regional, and national burden of GERD from 1990 to 2021, revealing epidemiological trends and regional disparities to inform targeted intervention strategies.
We utilized data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to assess the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of GERD. Key indicators included age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Analyses were stratified by age, gender, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Age-period-cohort (APC) models were applied to examine trends in the 15-49 age group, and Bayesian APC models were used to project future trends.
In 2021, global GERD prevalence reached 825.6 million (95% uncertainty interval: 732.99-925.56 million). From 1990 to 2021, incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs rose by 83.16, 80.06, and 82.46%, respectively. The ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR all showed upward trends, with EAPCs of 0.097, 0.076, and 0.083. The highest burden of ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR was observed in Tropical Latin America in 2021, while the lowest was in East Asia. Regions with lower SDI had higher ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR. In the 15-49 age group, the GERD burden increased with age across all SDI regions, with unfavorable period effects observed in high and high-middle SDI regions, as well as adverse cohort effects in high-middle and middle SDI regions. Projections indicate that by 2035, global GERD cases in this age group will reach 527.2 million (ASPR: 12,082.06/100,000), with 214.6 million incident cases (ASIR: 4,916.68/100,000) and 4.1 million YLDs (ASYR: 94.47/100,000).
GERD poses a growing global health challenge. Insights from these observed epidemiological patterns can assist policymakers in developing targeted measures to reduce its impact, particularly in high-risk regions and younger demographics.
胃食管反流病（GERD）是一种常见的慢性上消化道疾病，会引起不适并增加食管腺癌的风险。GERD的全球负担一直在稳步增加，已成为一个关键的公共卫生问题。本研究系统评估了1990年至2021年GERD的全球、区域和国家负担，揭示了流行病学趋势和区域差异，以为有针对性的干预策略提供参考。
我们利用2021年全球疾病负担研究（GBD）的数据来评估GERD的患病率、发病率和伤残调整生命年（YLDs）。关键指标包括年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）、年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化YLDs率（ASYR）和估计年百分比变化（EAPC）。分析按年龄、性别和社会人口指数（SDI）进行分层。应用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型来研究15至49岁年龄组的趋势，并使用贝叶斯APC模型来预测未来趋势。
2021年，全球GERD患病率达到8.256亿（95%不确定区间：7.3299亿 - 9.2556亿）。从1990年到2021年，新发病例、现患病例和YLDs分别增加了83.16%、80.06%和82.46%。ASIR、ASPR和ASYR均呈上升趋势，EAPC分别为0.097、0.076和0.083。2021年，热带拉丁美洲的ASIR、ASPR和ASYR负担最高，而东亚最低。SDI较低的地区ASIR、ASPR和ASYR较高。在15至49岁年龄组中，所有SDI区域的GERD负担均随年龄增加，高SDI和高中等SDI区域观察到不利的时期效应，高中等和中等SDI区域观察到不利的队列效应。预测表明，到2035年，该年龄组的全球GERD病例将达到5.272亿（ASPR：12082.06/10万），新发病例2.146亿（ASIR：4916.68/10万），YLDs 410万（ASYR：94.47/10万）。
GERD对全球健康构成了日益严峻的挑战。这些观察到的流行病学模式所提供的见解可帮助政策制定者制定有针对性的措施以减少其影响，特别是在高风险地区和较年轻人群中。
