Zeng Wen, Sun Xiaodan, Xing Hongping, Liu Yu, Liu Lu
School of Civil Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, China.
National Engineering Research Center of Geological Disaster Prevention Technology in Land Transportation, Chengdu, 610031, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Jul 5;14(1):15469. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-66249-w.
Rainstorm is one of the global meteorological disasters that threaten the safety of transportation infrastructure and the connectivity of transportation system. Aiming to support the resilience assessment of transportation infrastructure in three representative regions: Sichuan-Chongqing, Yangtze River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shandong, rainfall data over 40 years in the three regions are collected, and the temporal distribution of rainfall are analyzed. Prediction equations of rainfall are established. For the purpose of this, the probabilistic density function (PDF) is assigned to the rainfall by fitting the frequency distribution histogram. Using the assigned PDF, the rainfall data are transformed into standard normal space where regression of prediction equations is performed and the prediction accuracy is tested. The results show that: (1) The frequency of rainfall in the three regions follows a lognormal distribution based on which the prediction equations of rainfall can be established in standard normal space. The error of regression shows no remarkable dependence on self-variables, and the significance analysis indicates that the equations proposed in this paper are plausible for predicting rainfalls for the three regions. (2) The Yangtze River Delta region has a higher risk of rainstorm disaster compared to the other two regions according to the frequency of rainfall and the return period of precipitation concentration. (3) Over the period of 1980-2021, the Sichuan-Chongqing region witnessed an increase in yearly rainfall but a decrease in rainstorm disasters, whereas the other two regions experienced a consistent rise in both metrics.
暴雨是威胁交通基础设施安全和交通系统连通性的全球性气象灾害之一。为支持对四川 - 重庆、长江三角洲和京津冀 - 山东这三个代表性地区的交通基础设施进行韧性评估，收集了这三个地区40多年的降雨数据，并分析了降雨的时间分布。建立了降雨预测方程。为此，通过拟合频率分布直方图为降雨赋予概率密度函数（PDF）。利用赋予的PDF，将降雨数据转换到标准正态空间，在该空间中进行预测方程的回归并测试预测精度。结果表明：（1）三个地区的降雨频率服从对数正态分布，基于此可在标准正态空间建立降雨预测方程。回归误差对自变量无显著依赖性，显著性分析表明本文提出的方程对三个地区的降雨预测是合理的。（2）根据降雨频率和降水集中期的重现期，长江三角洲地区的暴雨灾害风险高于其他两个地区。（3）在1980 - 2021年期间，四川 - 重庆地区年降雨量增加，但暴雨灾害减少，而其他两个地区在这两个指标上均持续上升。
