Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, Italy; Rimini Center for Economic Analysis, USA.
College of Business, Law, and Governance James Cook University, Australia.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Aug;366:121675. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121675. Epub 2024 Jul 5.
This study provides first evidence on the effects of Chinese FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) outflows on host country environments. The study draws upon a comprehensive dataset covering aggregate Chinese FDI outflows and sector specific data into 65 host nations over the 2007-2019 period. Employing a STIRPAT (Stochastic Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model and several different techniques including DID (Difference-in-Difference), pooled OLS (Ordinary Least Squares), quantile regression, IV (Instrumental Variable) estimation, threshold and Tobit regression, the findings suggest that Chinese FDI leads to an increase in host country CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) emissions, aligning with the pollution haven hypothesis at the aggregate level. A closer investigation at the development regime and sectoral levels indicates that in the low development regime, FDI inflows into the financial and real estate sector increase emissions. Conversely in the high-income regime, Chinese FDI into the entertainment sector is associated with an increase in carbon emissions. Chinese FDI is further found to lead to an increase in emissions in countries with a per capita GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of below USD72041.7. However, as per capita income rises above USD72041.7, FDI leads to a fall in carbon emissions.
本研究首次提供了有关中国对外直接投资（FDI）流出对东道国环境影响的证据。该研究利用了一个涵盖 2007 年至 2019 年期间中国对外直接投资总流出量和对 65 个东道国特定部门数据的综合数据集。研究采用 STIRPAT（人口、富裕和技术的随机回归）模型以及几种不同的技术，包括 DID（差异中的差异）、OLS （普通最小二乘法）、分位数回归、IV（工具变量）估计、门槛和 Tobit 回归，结果表明，中国对外直接投资导致东道国二氧化碳（CO2）排放量增加，这与总体层面上的污染避难所假说一致。在发展模式和部门层面上的进一步调查表明，在低发展模式下，流入金融和房地产部门的外国直接投资增加了排放。相反，在高收入模式下，中国对娱乐部门的外国直接投资与碳排放增加有关。研究还发现，在中国对外直接投资流入人均国内生产总值（GDP）低于 72041.7 美元的国家，排放会增加。然而，当人均收入超过 72041.7 美元时，外国直接投资会导致碳排放减少。
