Burden of gastrointestinal cancers among people younger than 50 years in China, 1990 to 2019.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the burden of early-onset gastrointestinal (GI) cancers in China over three decades.

STUDY DESIGN

A comprehensive analysis was performed using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

Data on early-onset GI cancers in 2020 and from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2020 database and GBD 2019, respectively. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated to analyze the temporal trends using the Joinpoint Regression Program. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends up to 2030.

RESULTS

In China, there were 185,980 incident cases and 119,116 deaths of early-onset GI cancer in 2020, with the highest incidence and mortality observed in liver cancer (new cases: 71,662; deaths: 62,412). The spectrum of early-onset GI cancers in China has transitioned over the last 30 years. The age-standardized rates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years for colorectal and pancreatic cancers exhibited rapid increases (AAPC >0, P ≤ 0.001). The fastest-growing incidence rate was found in colorectal cancer (AAPC: 3.06, P < 0.001). Despite the decreases in liver, gastric, and esophageal cancers, these trends have been reversed or flattened in recent years. High body mass index was found to be the fastest-growing risk factor for early-onset GI cancers (estimated annual percentage change: 2.75-4.19, P < 0.05). Projection analyses showed an increasing trend in age-standardized incidence rates for almost all early-onset GI cancers during 2020-2030.

CONCLUSIONS

The transitioning pattern of early-onset GI cancers in China emphasizes the urgency of addressing this public health challenge.