School of Management, and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, No 5 Zhongguancun South Street, Haidian District, Beijing, China.
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.
Environ Geochem Health. 2024 Jul 8;46(8):293. doi: 10.1007/s10653-024-02024-0.
Although previous research has reached agreement on the significant impact of particulate matter (PM) on respiratory infectious diseases, PM acts as an aggregation of miscellaneous pollutants and the individual effect of each component has not been examined. Here, we investigate the effects of PM components, including black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sulfate ion (SO), dust, and sea salt (SS), on the morbidity and mortality of the recent respiratory disease, i.e. COVID-19. The daily data of 236 countries and provinces/states (e.g., in the United States and China) worldwide during 2020-2022 are utilized. To derive the pollutant-specific causal effects, optimal instrumental variables for each pollutant are selected from a large set of atmospheric variables. We find that one µg/m increase in OC increases the number of cases and death by about 3% to 6% from the mean worldwide during a lag of one day up to three days. Our findings remain consistent and robust when we change control variables such as the flight index and weather proxies, and also when applying a sine transformation to the positivity and death rate. When analyzing health effects among different areas, we find stronger impact in China, for its higher local OC concentration, as opposed to the impact in the United States. Health benefits from PM pollution reduction are comparatively high for developed regions, yet decreases in cases and deaths number are rather overt in less developing regions. Our research provides inspiration and reference for dealing with other respiratory diseases in the post-pandemic era.
虽然先前的研究已经达成共识，即颗粒物 (PM) 对呼吸道传染病有重大影响，但 PM 是多种污染物的聚集物，其各个成分的单独影响尚未被研究。在这里，我们研究了 PM 成分（包括黑碳 (BC)、有机碳 (OC)、硫酸盐离子 (SO)、灰尘和海盐 (SS)）对近期呼吸道疾病（即 COVID-19）发病率和死亡率的影响。利用了 2020-2022 年期间全球 236 个国家和省/州（例如美国和中国）的每日数据。为了得出污染物特异性的因果效应，我们从大量大气变量中为每种污染物选择了最佳的工具变量。我们发现，OC 每增加 1 µg/m，在滞后一天到三天的时间内，全球平均病例数和死亡人数会增加约 3%到 6%。当我们改变控制变量，如航班指数和天气指标，或对阳性率和死亡率进行正弦变换时，我们的发现仍然是一致和稳健的。在分析不同地区的健康影响时，我们发现中国的影响更大，因为其本地 OC 浓度更高，而美国的影响则较小。减少 PM 污染对发达地区的健康效益相对较高，但在欠发达地区，病例和死亡人数的减少则更为明显。我们的研究为应对后疫情时代的其他呼吸道疾病提供了启示和参考。
