Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
Front Public Health. 2024 Jun 25;12:1359189. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1359189. eCollection 2024.
There is a need for statistical methodologies that scrutinize civilian casualties in conflicts, evaluating the degree to which the conduct of war affects civilians and breaches the laws of war. Employing an epidemiological method, this study introduced, developed, and applied a novel approach for investigating mortality of civilians versus combatants in conflicts.
A deterministic mathematical model, structured by age and sex, was developed to describe the process of conflict-related deaths among both combatants and civilians. The model was calibrated using demographic and conflict-related data from different Israel-Gaza conflicts. To quantify the extent of the impact on civilians and determine whether they are the primary focus of a conflict, a statistical metric, the index of killing civilians, along with associated criteria, was devised.
The model-estimated proportion of deaths in Gaza categorized as combatants was 62.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 57.6-66.2%), 51.1% (95% UI: 47.1-54.9%), and 12.7% (95% UI: 9.7-15.4%) in the 2008-2009, 2014, and 2023 Israel-Gaza conflicts, respectively. The index of killing civilians was 0.61 (95% UI: 0.51-0.74), 0.96 (95% UI: 0.82-1.12), and 7.01 (95% UI: 5.50-9.29) in the 2008-2009, 2014, and 2023 conflicts, respectively. These index values indicate strong evidence for civilians being an object of war in the 2008-2009 and 2014 conflicts, but combatants were still identified as the primary focus of the conflict. In the 2023 conflict, there is robust evidence for civilians being an object of war, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.
Findings imply a progressive shift in Israel's rules of engagement over time, with a trend towards higher acceptance of casualties among civilians. The 2023 conflict stands apart from preceding Israel-Gaza conflicts, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.
需要有统计学方法来仔细研究冲突中的平民伤亡情况，评估战争行为对平民的影响程度以及是否违反战争法。本研究采用流行病学方法，引入、开发并应用了一种新方法来调查冲突中平民与战斗人员的死亡率。
我们构建了一个按年龄和性别分层的确定性数学模型，用于描述与冲突相关的战斗人员和平民的死亡过程。该模型使用来自不同以色列-加沙冲突的人口统计和冲突相关数据进行了校准。为了量化对平民的影响程度并确定他们是否是冲突的主要关注点，我们设计了一个统计指标，即平民杀伤指数，以及相关标准。
模型估计的 2008-2009 年、2014 年和 2023 年以色列-加沙冲突中，加沙地区的死亡人数中被归类为战斗人员的比例分别为 62.1%（95%置信区间：57.6-66.2%）、51.1%（95%置信区间：47.1-54.9%）和 12.7%（95%置信区间：9.7-15.4%）。平民杀伤指数分别为 0.61（95%置信区间：0.51-0.74）、0.96（95%置信区间：0.82-1.12）和 7.01（95%置信区间：5.50-9.29）。这些指数值表明，2008-2009 年和 2014 年冲突中平民很明显成为战争的目标，但战斗人员仍然是冲突的主要关注点。在 2023 年的冲突中，有强有力的证据表明平民成为战争的目标，平民被确定为冲突的主要关注点。
研究结果表明，以色列的交战规则随时间发生了渐进式转变，对平民伤亡的接受程度呈上升趋势。2023 年的冲突与以往的以色列-加沙冲突不同，平民被确定为冲突的主要关注点。
