Fan Yu, Zheng Yun, Jia Changgeng, Song Youtao
College of Environment, Liaoning University, Shenyang, China.
Institute for Finance Research, Shenyang, Liaoning, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Jul 10;14(1):15954. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-64655-8.
Gross ecosystem product (GEP) is an aggregate measure of the monetary value of final ecosystem services, or the direct benefits that people derive from nature. GEP can provide decision makers with clear and competing evidence of the monetary value of ecosystem services. However, the relationship between GEP and urbanization has not been clarified which is not conducive to the decision-making role of GEP in the process of urban sustainable development. This work focused on the 'Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei' (BTH) urban agglomeration as a case study of the dynamics of ecological production amidst rapid economic and urban development, and coupled a spatial-temporal analysis of regional ecological change based on GIS (Geographic Information System) with economic valuation methods using official statistics and survey data. Results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the GEP increased from 1.55 trillion to 2.36 trillion, the value of provisioning services and cultural services increased from 0.51 to 0.71 trillion to 0.10-0.65 trillion. The value of regulation services showed an upward and downward trend (0.94-1.03-0.98) due to the rapid economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. There were obvious spatial differences in the distribution of the GEP, in which Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Cangzhou GEP accounted for 15%, 14%, 16% and 11%, respectively. During 2000-2020, there is a significant correlation between urbanization index (UI) and GEP in BTH, but the correlation between GEP and UI shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The correlation between UI and EPS and ERS gradually decreases, and the impact of UI on ETS shows a significant positive correlation. In the future, it can be foreseen that urbanization will suppress the increase of GEP.
生态系统生产总值（GEP）是对最终生态系统服务货币价值的综合衡量，即人们从自然中获得的直接利益。GEP可以为决策者提供生态系统服务货币价值的清晰且具有可比性的证据。然而，GEP与城市化之间的关系尚未明确，这不利于GEP在城市可持续发展过程中的决策作用。这项工作以“京津冀”城市群为重点案例研究，探讨了在快速经济和城市发展背景下生态生产的动态变化，并将基于地理信息系统（GIS）的区域生态变化时空分析与使用官方统计数据和调查数据的经济估值方法相结合。结果表明，2000年至2020年期间，GEP从1.55万亿增加到2.36万亿，供给服务和文化服务的价值从0.51万亿增加到0.71万亿，调节服务的价值从0.94万亿增加到1.03万亿，然后降至0.98万亿。由于京津冀地区经济的快速发展，调节服务的价值呈现出先上升后下降的趋势（0.94 - 1.03 - 0.98）。GEP的分布存在明显的空间差异，其中北京、天津、唐山、沧州的GEP分别占15%、14%、16%和11%。2000 - 2020年期间，京津冀地区城市化指数（UI）与GEP之间存在显著相关性，但GEP与UI之间的相关性呈现出先上升后下降的趋势。UI与供给服务（EPS）和调节服务（ERS）之间的相关性逐渐降低，而UI对支持服务（ETS）的影响呈现出显著的正相关。未来，可以预见城市化将抑制GEP的增长。
