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关于“实际风险”一词的使用。

On the use of the term "real risk".

作者信息

Flage Roger, Aven Terje, Glette-Iversen Ingrid

机构信息

Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway.

出版信息

Risk Anal. 2025 Jan;45(1):214-222. doi: 10.1111/risa.15073. Epub 2024 Jul 11.

Abstract

The term "real risk" and variations of this term are commonly used in everyday speech and writing, and in the scientific literature. There are mainly two types of use: i) in statements about what the real risk related to an activity is and ii) in statements about the risk related to an activity being real. The former type of use has been extensively discussed in the literature, whereas the latter type has received less attention. In the present study, we review both types of use and analyze and discuss potential meanings of type ii) statements. We conclude that it is reasonable to interpret a statement about the risk being real as reflecting a judgement that there is some risk and that the knowledge supporting this statement is relatively strong. However, such a statement does not convey whether the risk is small or large and needs to be supplemented by a characterization of the risk.

摘要

“实际风险”这一术语及其变体在日常言语、写作以及科学文献中都很常用。主要有两种用法:i)用于陈述与某项活动相关的实际风险是什么;ii)用于陈述与某项活动相关的风险是真实存在的。前一种用法在文献中已得到广泛讨论,而后一种用法受到的关注较少。在本研究中,我们回顾了这两种用法,并分析和讨论了ii)类陈述的潜在含义。我们得出结论,将关于风险是真实存在的陈述解释为反映一种判断是合理的,即存在某种风险且支持该陈述的知识相对充分。然而,这样的陈述并未传达风险是大还是小,需要补充对风险的描述。

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