School of Finance, Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics, Urumqi, China.
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Jul 12;19(7):e0307209. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307209. eCollection 2024.
The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight the role of debt sustainability in achieving sustainable development. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an international cooperation effort that is endorsed by over 150 countries and organizations. Given the alignment between BRI development goals and the SDGs, the issue of debt sustainability in BRI countries warrants attention. While existing studies focus on sovereign risk in debt sustainability, there is a lack of emphasis on currency risk, indicating a need for further investigation to mitigate risks and comprehensively evaluate debt stability. Using data from 142 countries, this study examines currency risk reduction in BRI countries by assessing currency competitiveness. We find that the US dollar (USD) is the most competitive currency among BRI countries, followed by the Euro (EUR), Chinese yuan (CNY), sterling pound (GBP), and Japanese yen (JPY). The USD maintains its competitive edge over time, making it the preferred choice, with the EUR as a less optimal option and the CNY showing potential. Geographically, the EUR's close ties with BRI countries lend it prominence, followed by the USD, with the CNY gaining traction. GBP and JPY are considered conservative choices. Recommendations for currency selection vary based on countries' competitiveness, bilateral relationships, and development status.
联合国的可持续发展目标（SDGs）强调了债务可持续性在实现可持续发展方面的作用。中国的“一带一路”倡议（BRI）是一项国际合作努力，得到了 150 多个国家和组织的支持。鉴于 BRI 发展目标与可持续发展目标之间的一致性，BRI 国家的债务可持续性问题值得关注。虽然现有研究侧重于债务可持续性中的主权风险，但对货币风险的重视程度不够，表明需要进一步调查以降低风险并全面评估债务稳定性。本研究使用来自 142 个国家的数据，通过评估货币竞争力来研究 BRI 国家的货币风险降低情况。我们发现，美元（USD）是 BRI 国家中最具竞争力的货币，其次是欧元（EUR）、人民币（CNY）、英镑（GBP）和日元（JPY）。美元随着时间的推移保持着竞争优势，是首选货币，欧元次之，而 CNY 则显示出潜力。从地理位置上看，欧元与 BRI 国家的紧密联系使其脱颖而出，其次是美元，而 CNY 则逐渐受到关注。英镑和日元被认为是保守的选择。根据各国的竞争力、双边关系和发展状况，货币选择的建议也有所不同。
