Khadka Nitesh, Chen Xiaoqing, Liu Weiming, Gouli Manish Raj, Zhang Chonglei, Shrestha Bhaskar, Sharma Shankar
State Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
State Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Oct 20;948:174701. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174701. Epub 2024 Jul 10.
Holistic study of glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the strategically important China-Nepal transportation corridors is imperative for regional connectivity and disaster risk reduction. This study focuses on four China-Nepal transportation corridors, namely Chentang-Kimathanka, Zhangmu-Kodari, Keyrung-Kathmandu and Taklakot-Hilsa from east to west in the Himalayan region. Within a remote integrated framework, we present the latest high-resolution inventory of glacial lakes, assess their decadal spatio-temporal changes (1992-2022), identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes, and apply hydrodynamic model to assess downstream impacts of possible GLOFs along the study area. The results show 2688 glacial lakes (≥0.001 km) with a total area of 116.10 ± 8.53 km over the study area in 2022. Glacial lakes exhibited spatiotemporal heterogeneity in expansion, with overall expansion of 32 % during 30 years. Keyrung-Kathmandu corridor, among others, was assessed with high GLOF susceptibility. Furthermore, hydrodynamic modeling of four highly dangerous lakes in each transportation area reveals that GLOFs have cross-border effects, impacting ∼103 km of China-Nepal highway, 103 bridges, two major dry ports and 3301 buildings in both countries. Based on these findings, we emphasize the joint efforts of both countries for integrated disaster management for smooth connectivity between two countries and saving downstream population through joint cooperation from central to local government levels by initiating artificial lake lowering, developing cross-border early warning systems and cooperation. This study is valuable for presenting a synergistic study of glacial lakes and GLOF for informing decision- and policy-makers of both China and Nepal for a joint approach to disaster mitigation.
对具有战略重要性的中尼交通走廊中的冰川湖和冰川湖突发洪水（GLOF）进行整体研究，对于区域互联互通和降低灾害风险至关重要。本研究聚焦于喜马拉雅地区从东到西的四条中尼交通走廊，即陈塘—基尔塘卡、樟木—科达里、吉隆—加德满都和塔克拉科特—希尔萨。在一个远程综合框架内，我们展示了最新的高分辨率冰川湖清单，评估了它们的年代际时空变化（1992—2022年），识别了潜在危险的冰川湖，并应用水动力模型评估了研究区域内可能发生的冰川湖突发洪水的下游影响。结果显示，2022年研究区域内有2688个冰川湖（面积≥0.001平方千米），总面积为116.10±8.53平方千米。冰川湖在扩张方面表现出时空异质性，30年间总体扩张了32%。其中，吉隆—加德满都走廊被评估为具有高冰川湖突发洪水易发性。此外，对每个交通区域内四个高度危险湖泊的水动力建模表明，冰川湖突发洪水具有跨境影响，会影响中尼公路约103千米、103座桥梁、两个主要陆港以及两国的3301栋建筑物。基于这些发现，我们强调两国共同努力进行综合灾害管理，以便两国之间实现顺畅互联互通，并通过中央到地方政府层面的联合合作，开展人工湖水位降低、开发跨境预警系统及合作等行动，拯救下游民众。本研究对于展示冰川湖和冰川湖突发洪水的协同研究具有重要价值，可为中国和尼泊尔的决策者提供信息，以便采取联合减灾方法。
