美国癌症幸存者的患病率。
Prevalence of cancer survivors in the United States.
机构信息
Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.
Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.
出版信息
J Natl Cancer Inst. 2024 Nov 1;116(11):1784-1790. doi: 10.1093/jnci/djae135.
BACKGROUND
With aging of the population and improvements in diagnosis, treatment, and supportive care, the number of cancer survivors in the United States has increased; updated prevalence estimates are needed.
METHODS
Cancer prevalence on January 1, 2022, was estimated using the Prevalence Incidence Approach Model, utilizing incidence, survival, and mortality. Prevalence by age decade, sex, and time from diagnosis was calculated. The percentage of cancer survivors in the projected US population by age and sex was calculated as the ratio of the sex-specific projected prevalence to the sex-specific projected US population.
RESULTS
There were an estimated 18.1 million US cancer survivors as of January 1, 2022. From 2022 to 2030, the number of US cancer survivors is projected to increase to 21.6 million; by 2040, the number is projected to be 26 million. Long-term survivors are highly prevalent; in 2022, 70% of cancer survivors had lived 5 years or more after diagnosis, and 11% of cancer survivors had lived 25 years or more after diagnosis. Among all US females aged 40-54 years, 3.6% were cancer survivors; among females aged 65-74 years, 14.5% were cancer survivors; among females aged 85 years and older, 36.4% were cancer survivors. Among all US males aged 40-54 years, 2.1% were cancer survivors; among males aged 65-74 years, 16% were cancer survivors; and among those aged 85 years and older, 48.3% were cancer survivors.
CONCLUSIONS
Cancer survivors are growing in number. In the United States, most cancer survivors are long-term and very long-term survivors, representing a substantial proportion of the US population.
背景
随着人口老龄化以及诊断、治疗和支持性护理的改善，美国的癌症幸存者人数有所增加；因此需要更新流行率的预估数据。
方法
利用发病率、生存率和死亡率，通过流行率-发病模型估算 2022 年 1 月 1 日的癌症流行率。计算了按年龄十年、性别和诊断后时间划分的流行率。通过将特定性别预测流行率与特定性别预测美国人口相除，计算出按年龄和性别分类的预计美国癌症幸存者在预计美国人口中的百分比。
结果
截至 2022 年 1 月 1 日，美国估计有 1810 万癌症幸存者。预计 2022 年至 2030 年，美国癌症幸存者人数将增加到 2160 万；到 2040 年，预计将达到 2600 万。长期幸存者的比例很高；2022 年，70%的癌症幸存者在诊断后生存 5 年或以上，11%的癌症幸存者在诊断后生存 25 年或以上。在所有 40-54 岁的美国女性中，有 3.6%是癌症幸存者；在所有 65-74 岁的美国女性中，有 14.5%是癌症幸存者；在所有 85 岁及以上的美国女性中，有 36.4%是癌症幸存者。在所有 40-54 岁的美国男性中，有 2.1%是癌症幸存者；在所有 65-74 岁的美国男性中，有 16%是癌症幸存者；在所有 85 岁及以上的美国男性中，有 48.3%是癌症幸存者。
结论
癌症幸存者的人数在不断增加。在美国，大多数癌症幸存者是长期和非常长期的幸存者，占美国人口的很大比例。
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