利用疾病死亡模型估计 2003 年至 2015 年墨西哥按年龄和性别标准化的糖尿病发病率。

Using the illness-death model to estimate age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of diabetes in Mexico from 2003 to 2015.

机构信息

Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.

Steno Diabetes Center Aarhus, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2024 Jul 15;24(1):1882. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-19281-4.

DOI:10.1186/s12889-024-19281-4

PMID:39010051

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11247887/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

We aimed to estimate the age-specific and age-standardized incidence rate of diabetes for men and women in Mexico between 2003 and 2015, and to assess the relative change in incidence of diabetes between 2003 and 2015.

METHODS

We use a partial differential equation describing the illness-death model to estimate the incidence rate (IR) of diabetes for the years 2003, 2009 and 2015 based on prevalence data from National Health Surveys conducted in Mexico, the mortality rate of the Mexican general population and plausible input values for age-specific mortality rate ratios associated with diabetes.

RESULTS

The age-standardized IR of diabetes per 1000 person years (pryr) was similar among men (IRm) and women (IRw) in the year 2003 (IRm 6.1 vs. IRw 6.5 1000/pryr), 2009 (IRm: 7.0 vs. IRw: 8.4 1000/pryr), and in 2015 (IRm 8.0 vs. IRw 10.6 1000/pryr). The highest incident rates were observed among men and women in the 60-69 age group.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the incidence rate of diabetes in Mexico between the years 2003 and 2015 remained stable. However, rates were markedly higher among women in the age group 40-49 and 50-59 in the year 2015 compared with rates in 2003.

摘要

背景

本研究旨在估计 2003 年至 2015 年期间墨西哥男性和女性糖尿病的年龄特异性和年龄标准化发病率，并评估 2003 年至 2015 年期间糖尿病发病率的相对变化。

方法

我们使用描述疾病死亡模型的偏微分方程，根据墨西哥全国健康调查中的患病率数据、墨西哥一般人群的死亡率以及与糖尿病相关的年龄特异性死亡率比的合理输入值，估算 2003 年、2009 年和 2015 年糖尿病的发病率（IR）。

结果

2003 年（IRm：6.1 vs. IRw：6.5 1000/pryr）、2009 年（IRm：7.0 vs. IRw：8.4 1000/pryr）和 2015 年（IRm：8.0 vs. IRw：10.6 1000/pryr），男性和女性的年龄标准化发病率（IRm 和 IRw）相似。最高的发病年龄在 60-69 岁年龄组的男性和女性中观察到。