Assessing changes in the ecosystem service value in response to land use and land cover dynamics in Malawi.

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are inevitable outcomes of socioeconomic changes and greatly affect ecosystem services. Our study addresses the critical gap in the existing literature by providing the first comprehensive national analysis of LULC changes and their impacts on ecosystem service values (ESVs) in Malawi. We assessed changes in ecosystem service values (ESVs) in response to LULC changes using the benefit transfer method in ArcGIS 10.6 software. Our findings revealed a significant increase in grasslands, croplands, and urban areas and a notable decline in forests, shrubs, wetlands, and water bodies. Grassland, cropland, and built-up areas expanded by 52%, 1%, and 23.2%, respectively. In contrast, permanent wetlands, barren land, and water bodies declined by 27.6%, 34.3%, and 1%, respectively. The ESV declined from US$90.87 billion in 2001 to US$85.60 billion in 2022, marking a 5.8% reduction. Provisioning services increased by 0.5% while regulating, supporting, and cultural ecosystem service functions declined by 12.2%, 3.16%, and 3.22%, respectively. The increase in provisioning services was due to the expansion of cropland. However, the loss of regulating, supporting, and cultural services was mainly due to the loss of natural ecosystems. Thus, environmental policy should prioritise the conservation and restoration of natural ecosystems to enhance the ESV of Malawi.