Wang Jingyi, Wang Jiasheng, Xiong Jianhong, Sun Mengzhu, Ma Yongchao
Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, Yunnan Province, P. R. China.
The Engineering Research Center of GIS Technology in Western China of Ministry of Education of China, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, Yunnan Province, P. R. China.
PLoS One. 2024 Jul 17;19(7):e0307148. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307148. eCollection 2024.
The karst plateau is dominated by mountainous and hilly landforms, with low mechanization level of cropland, high difficulty of cultivation, and obvious phenomenon of cropland abandonment, which threatens regional food security. This study aims to analyze the spatial-temporal variation and its driving mechanisms of abandoned cropland in the Karst Plateau in Eastern Yunnan, China (KPEYC) between 2001 and 2020. To achieve this goal, 18 key factors from population, economic environment, cropland attributes, and farming conditions are selected. Moreover, correlation analysis, geodetector, and regression analysis methods are applied from three perspectives: temporal change, spatial distribution and spatial-temporal change. The results show that: (i) The cropland abandonment rate (CAR) in the KPEYC shows a fluctuating trend, with an average value of 9.78%, and the spatial distribution shows a pattern of "high in the center and low in the south and north". (ii) From the perspective of temporal change, gross value of agricultural production, and gross value of industrial production have the largest correlation coefficients with CAR. (iii) The explanatory power of gross tertiary industrial production, gross value of industrial production, followed by soil thickness. (iv) Gross value of agricultural production, and gross tertiary industrial production are the core driving forces for the spatial-temporal change of CAR. The higher the gross value of agricultural production and gross tertiary industrial production, the lower the CAR. elevation, soil thickness, and traffic mileage are the main driving factors for the spatial-temporal change of CAR. The study indicates that economic factors are decisive for cropland abandonment in the KPEYC. Based on the results, this study can provide decision-making support for local prevention and control of cropland abandonment, and the local community needs to promote land transfer and concentration and local urbanization according to local conditions, improve agricultural policies, improve farming conditions, etc. in order to increase farmers' enthusiasm for production, promote the rational use of cropland, and solidly push forward ecological restoration and management, optimize ecological spatial patterns, manage serious areas of rocky desertification, and appropriately alleviate the contradiction between people and land.
喀斯特高原以山地和丘陵地貌为主，耕地机械化水平低，耕种难度大，耕地撂荒现象明显，威胁区域粮食安全。本研究旨在分析2001年至2020年中国滇东喀斯特高原（KPEYC）撂荒耕地的时空变化及其驱动机制。为实现这一目标，选取了人口、经济环境、耕地属性和耕作条件等18个关键因素。此外，从时间变化、空间分布和时空变化三个角度应用了相关分析、地理探测器和回归分析方法。结果表明：（i）KPEYC的耕地撂荒率（CAR）呈波动趋势，平均值为9.78%，空间分布呈现“中间高、南北低”的格局。（ii）从时间变化角度看，农业生产总值和工业生产总值与CAR的相关系数最大。（iii）第三产业生产总值、工业生产总值的解释力次之，其次是土壤厚度。（iv）农业生产总值和第三产业生产总值是CAR时空变化的核心驱动力。农业生产总值和第三产业生产总值越高，CAR越低。海拔、土壤厚度和交通里程是CAR时空变化的主要驱动因素。研究表明，经济因素对KPEYC的耕地撂荒起决定性作用。基于研究结果，本研究可为当地耕地撂荒防治提供决策支持，当地社区需要因地制宜地推进土地流转与集中以及当地城镇化，完善农业政策，改善耕作条件等，以提高农民生产积极性，促进耕地合理利用，扎实推进生态修复与治理，优化生态空间格局，治理石漠化严重地区，适度缓解人地矛盾。
