Lübker Christopher, Murtin Fabrice
Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK.
J Epidemiol Community Health. 2025 Jan 13;79(2):75-81. doi: 10.1136/jech-2024-222089.
Deaths of despair are a key contributor to stagnating life expectancy in the USA, especially among those without a university-level education, but these findings have not been compared internationally.
Mortality and person-year population exposure data were collected in 14 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries and stratified by age, sex, educational attainment and cause of death. The sample included 1.4 billion person-year observations from persons aged ≥25 years between 2013 and 2019. Country-specific and sex-specific contributions of deaths of despair to: (a) the life expectancy gap at age 25 and (b) rate differences in age-standardised mortality rates between high and low educational attainment groups were calculated.
Eliminating deaths of despair could reduce the life expectancy gap in the USA by 1.1 years for men and 0.6 years for women was second only to Korea, where it would reduce the gap by 3.4 years for men and 2.2 years for women. In Italy, Spain and Türkiye, eliminating deaths of despair would improve life expectancy gains by less than 0.1 years for women and 0.3 years for men, closing the educational gap by <1%. Findings were robust to controls for differences in population structures.
Deaths of despair are a major determinant of educational inequalities in longevity in Korea and the USA, while having limited impact in Southern European countries, indicating substantial international variation and scope for improvement in high burden high-income countries.
绝望导致的死亡是美国预期寿命停滞不前的关键因素,尤其是在那些没有大学学历的人群中,但这些研究结果尚未在国际上进行比较。
收集了经济合作与发展组织14个成员国的死亡率和人年人口暴露数据,并按年龄、性别、教育程度和死因进行分层。样本包括2013年至2019年期间年龄≥25岁人群的14亿人年观察数据。计算了绝望导致的死亡对以下方面的特定国家和特定性别的贡献:(a)25岁时的预期寿命差距;(b)高教育程度和低教育程度群体之间年龄标准化死亡率的差异率。
消除绝望导致的死亡可使美国男性的预期寿命差距减少1.1岁,女性减少0.6岁,仅次于韩国,在韩国,男性预期寿命差距可减少3.4岁,女性减少2.2岁。在意大利、西班牙和土耳其,消除绝望导致的死亡对女性预期寿命的提高不到0.1岁,对男性不到0.3岁,教育差距缩小不到1%。研究结果在控制人口结构差异方面具有稳健性。
绝望导致的死亡是韩国和美国寿命方面教育不平等的主要决定因素,而在南欧国家影响有限,这表明高负担高收入国家存在显著的国际差异和改善空间。