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基于反演模型推断的2018 - 2021年中国氢氯氟烃-22和氢氯氟烃-142b排放量

Emissions of HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b in China during 2018-2021 Inferred from Inverse Modeling.

作者信息

Sun Yahui, Yao Bo, Ma Mengyue, Hu Xiaoyi, Ji Mingrui, Fang Xuekun

机构信息

College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, Zhejiang, P. R. China.

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, P. R. China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Technol. 2024 Jul 21. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.4c02169.

Abstract

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are transitional substitutes for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). However, they still have the capacity to be ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Therefore, they are scheduled to be phased out in China by 2030 under the Montreal Protocol. The emission estimates of HCFC-22 (CHClF) and HCFC-142b (CHCClF) in China using atmospheric observations are lacking after 2017, making it hard to understand the effectiveness of the phase-out process of HCFCs in China. Here, we use flask and measurements of HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b during 2018-2021 and inverse modeling to determine the emission magnitude and changes in China. It was determined that China's emissions were 172 ± 40, 154 ± 39, 160 ± 22, and 155 ± 33 Gg yr of HCFC-22 and 8.3 ± 1.8, 7.8 ± 1.6, 7.4 ± 1.7, and 7.9 ± 1.7 Gg yr of HCFC-142b from 2018 to 2021, respectively. Top-down estimates show that HCFC-22 emissions in China were stable, while HCFC-142b emissions were decreasing during 2013-2021, although both substances were in the stage of being phased out during 2013-2021. This study reveals that 46 and 39% of the global HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b emissions, respectively, cannot be traced to certain countries in 2020. We suggest that more studies on HCFC emissions around the world in the future are needed to better safeguard the ozone layer recovery and climate mitigation by ensuring compliance with the Montreal Protocol during HCFC phase-out processes.

摘要

氢氯氟烃(HCFCs)是氯氟烃(CFCs)的过渡替代品。然而,它们仍有成为消耗臭氧层物质(ODSs)的可能。因此,根据《蒙特利尔议定书》,它们计划于2030年在中国逐步淘汰。2017年之后,中国缺乏利用大气观测数据对HCFC - 22(CHClF₂)和HCFC - 142b(CH₃CClF₂)排放的估算,这使得难以了解中国氢氯氟烃淘汰进程的成效。在此,我们利用2018 - 2021年期间对HCFC - 22和HCFC - 142b的气袋测量以及反演模型来确定中国的排放规模和变化情况。研究确定,2018年至2021年期间,中国HCFC - 22的排放量分别为172±40、154±39、160±22和155±33Gg/年,HCFC - 142b的排放量分别为8.3±1.8、7.8±1.6、7.4±1.7和7.9±1.7Gg/年。自上而下的估算表明,2013 - 2021年期间,尽管这两种物质都处于淘汰阶段,但中国HCFC - 22的排放量保持稳定,而HCFC - 142b的排放量在下降。本研究表明,2020年全球HCFC - 22和HCFC - 142b排放量分别有46%和39%无法追溯到特定国家。我们建议未来需要对全球氢氯氟烃排放进行更多研究,以通过在氢氯氟烃淘汰过程中确保遵守《蒙特利尔议定书》,更好地保护臭氧层恢复和缓解气候变化。

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