文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

用一个简单的模型估算美国六个州开展的新冠病毒疫苗接种活动挽救的生命数量。

Estimate the number of lives saved by a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in six states in the United States with a simple model.

作者信息

Yin Yi, Tang Shuhan, Li Qiong, Zhou Sijia, Ma Yuhang, Wang Weiming, He Daihai, Peng Zhihang

机构信息

School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.

Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University United International College, Zhuhai, China.

出版信息

IJID Reg. 2024 Jun 15;12:100390. doi: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100390. eCollection 2024 Sep.


DOI:10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100390
PMID:39041059
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11262167/
Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Vaccination and the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant changed the fate of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is very challenging to estimate the number of lives saved by vaccination given the multiple doses of vaccination, the time-varying nature of transmissibility, the waning of immunity, and the presence of immune evasion. METHODS: We established a S-S-E-I-T-D-R model to simulate the number of lives saved by vaccination in six states in the United States (U.S.) from March 5, 2020, to March 23, 2023. The cumulative number of deaths were estimated under three vaccination scenarios based on two assumptions. Additionally, immune evasion by the Omicron and loss of protection afforded by vaccination or infection were considered. RESULTS: The number of deaths averted by COVID-19 vaccinations (including three doses) ranged from 0.154-0.295% of the total population across six states. The number of deaths averted by the third dose ranged from 0.008-0.017% of the total population. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimate of death averted by COVID-19 vaccination in the U.S. was largely in line with an official estimate (at a level of 0.15-0.20% of the total population). We found that the additional contribution of the third dose was small but significant.

摘要

目的:疫苗接种以及高传播性奥密克戎变种的出现改变了新冠疫情的走向。鉴于疫苗接种的多剂次、传播性的时变特性、免疫力的减弱以及免疫逃逸的存在,估计疫苗接种挽救的生命数量极具挑战性。 方法:我们建立了一个S-S-E-I-T-D-R模型,以模拟2020年3月5日至2023年3月23日期间美国六个州疫苗接种挽救的生命数量。基于两个假设,在三种疫苗接种情景下估计了累计死亡人数。此外,还考虑了奥密克戎的免疫逃逸以及疫苗接种或感染所提供保护的丧失。 结果:新冠疫苗接种(包括三剂)避免的死亡人数占六个州总人口的0.154%-0.295%。第三剂疫苗避免的死亡人数占总人口的0.008%-0.017%。 结论:我们对美国新冠疫苗接种避免的死亡人数的估计在很大程度上与官方估计一致(占总人口的0.15%-0.20%)。我们发现第三剂疫苗的额外贡献虽小但很显著。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/73d1/11262167/0b4455d60f48/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/73d1/11262167/8883b2a378f9/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/73d1/11262167/021b7b12c533/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/73d1/11262167/0b4455d60f48/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/73d1/11262167/8883b2a378f9/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/73d1/11262167/021b7b12c533/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/73d1/11262167/0b4455d60f48/gr3.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Estimate the number of lives saved by a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in six states in the United States with a simple model.

IJID Reg. 2024-6-15

[2]
COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, and implications for vaccination.

medRxiv. 2021-11-22

[3]
Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 hospitalization with the Alpha, Delta, or Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant: A nationwide Danish cohort study.

PLoS Med. 2022-9

[4]
Estimated COVID-19 severe cases and deaths averted in the first year of the vaccination campaign in Brazil: A retrospective observational study.

Lancet Reg Health Am. 2023-1

[5]
COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths averted under an accelerated vaccination program in northeastern and southern regions of the USA.

Lancet Reg Health Am. 2022-2

[6]
Benefit-Cost Analysis of the HHS COVID-19 Campaign: April 2021-March 2022.

Am J Prev Med. 2024-8

[7]
Conversations With Individuals on the Fence about CV-19 Vaccination: Analysis of Lives Saved by Vaccine vs. Natural Infection Mortality and Other Reflections.

J Community Hosp Intern Med Perspect. 2022-1-31

[8]
Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis.

Lancet Reg Health Am. 2023-1

[9]
Infections, hospitalisations, and deaths averted via a nationwide vaccination campaign using the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in Israel: a retrospective surveillance study.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2022-3

[10]
Role of previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 in protecting against omicron reinfections and severe complications of COVID-19 compared to pre-omicron variants: a systematic review.

BMC Infect Dis. 2023-6-26

引用本文的文献

[1]
Exploring affordable and effective pandemic containment measures in lower-income countries with a spatial SEIR model: a case study in South Africa.

BMC Public Health. 2025-7-23

本文引用的文献

[1]
Care fragmentation and readmission mortality and length of stay before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: data from the National Readmissions Database, 2018-2020.

BMC Health Serv Res. 2024-5-14

[2]
New insights into three trajectories of omicron-related all-cause death reduced by COVID-19 booster vaccination.

J Infect Public Health. 2024-5

[3]
Omicron breakthrough infections after triple-dose inactivated COVID-19 vaccination: A comprehensive analysis of antibody and T-cell responses.

Immunology. 2024-6

[4]
Protective effect of previous infection and vaccination against reinfection with BA.5 Omicron subvariant: a nationwide population-based study in Japan.

Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2023-9-25

[5]
Ethno-demographic disparities in humoral responses to the COVID-19 vaccine among healthcare workers.

J Med Virol. 2023-9

[6]
Persistent T cell-mediated immune responses against Omicron variants after the third COVID-19 mRNA vaccine dose.

Front Immunol. 2023

[7]
Third dose vaccination with mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2 vaccines improves protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

PNAS Nexus. 2022-4-28

[8]
Mathematical assessment of the role of waning and boosting immunity against the BA.1 Omicron variant in the United States.

Math Biosci Eng. 2023-1

[9]
Twice evasions of Omicron variants explain the temporal patterns in six Asian and Oceanic countries.

BMC Infect Dis. 2023-1-13

[10]
Global emerging Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2: Impacts, challenges and strategies.

J Infect Public Health. 2023-1

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索