Yin Yi, Tang Shuhan, Li Qiong, Zhou Sijia, Ma Yuhang, Wang Weiming, He Daihai, Peng Zhihang
School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University United International College, Zhuhai, China.
IJID Reg. 2024 Jun 15;12:100390. doi: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100390. eCollection 2024 Sep.
Vaccination and the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant changed the fate of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is very challenging to estimate the number of lives saved by vaccination given the multiple doses of vaccination, the time-varying nature of transmissibility, the waning of immunity, and the presence of immune evasion.
We established a S-S-E-I-T-D-R model to simulate the number of lives saved by vaccination in six states in the United States (U.S.) from March 5, 2020, to March 23, 2023. The cumulative number of deaths were estimated under three vaccination scenarios based on two assumptions. Additionally, immune evasion by the Omicron and loss of protection afforded by vaccination or infection were considered.
The number of deaths averted by COVID-19 vaccinations (including three doses) ranged from 0.154-0.295% of the total population across six states. The number of deaths averted by the third dose ranged from 0.008-0.017% of the total population.
Our estimate of death averted by COVID-19 vaccination in the U.S. was largely in line with an official estimate (at a level of 0.15-0.20% of the total population). We found that the additional contribution of the third dose was small but significant.
疫苗接种以及高传播性奥密克戎变种的出现改变了新冠疫情的走向。鉴于疫苗接种的多剂次、传播性的时变特性、免疫力的减弱以及免疫逃逸的存在，估计疫苗接种挽救的生命数量极具挑战性。
我们建立了一个S-S-E-I-T-D-R模型，以模拟2020年3月5日至2023年3月23日期间美国六个州疫苗接种挽救的生命数量。基于两个假设，在三种疫苗接种情景下估计了累计死亡人数。此外，还考虑了奥密克戎的免疫逃逸以及疫苗接种或感染所提供保护的丧失。
新冠疫苗接种（包括三剂）避免的死亡人数占六个州总人口的0.154%-0.295%。第三剂疫苗避免的死亡人数占总人口的0.008%-0.017%。
我们对美国新冠疫苗接种避免的死亡人数的估计在很大程度上与官方估计一致（占总人口的0.15%-0.20%）。我们发现第三剂疫苗的额外贡献虽小但很显著。
