Huabing Zhang, MD, No.1 Shuaifuyuan, Wangfujing, Dongcheng District, Beijing, China, ORCID identifiers: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6259-7584, Email:
J Prev Alzheimers Dis. 2024;11(4):1013-1021. doi: 10.14283/jpad.2024.21.
Dementia is a growing global health challenge. Quantifying the current burden and predicting the future increases of dementia-related deaths are necessary to enhance effective policy decisions and health system planning.
Data on dementia mortality was derived from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 study. The 2020-2050 dementia-related deaths were forecasted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
Globally, the number of dementia-related death increased from 0.56 million in 1990 to 1.62 million in 2019 and were estimated to increase to 4.91 million by the year 2050. Metabolic risk factors would become the most important modifiable risk factors affecting dementia death which account for 28.10% of dementia related death by the year 2050. For different Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, the low SDI region would have the highest age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (29.16 per 100,000) by 2050. Moreover, the number of dementia-related deaths under the age of 70 years was predicted to reach 0.18 million by 2050.
Dementia related death remains a global health problem, and health policies targeting metabolic risk factors may be an important way to alleviate this problem.
痴呆症是一个日益严重的全球健康挑战。量化当前的负担，并预测未来与痴呆症相关的死亡人数增加，对于加强有效的政策决策和卫生系统规划是必要的。
痴呆症死亡率的数据来源于全球疾病、伤害和危险因素研究（GBD）2019 年的研究。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测了 2020 年至 2050 年与痴呆症相关的死亡人数。
全球范围内，与痴呆症相关的死亡人数从 1990 年的 0.56 万例增加到 2019 年的 1.62 万例，并预计到 2050 年将增加到 491 万例。代谢风险因素将成为影响痴呆症死亡的最重要的可改变风险因素，到 2050 年，将占痴呆症相关死亡人数的 28.10%。在不同的社会人口指数（SDI）地区，低 SDI 地区到 2050 年的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）预计将达到 29.16 每 10 万人。此外，预计到 2050 年，70 岁以下与痴呆症相关的死亡人数将达到 0.18 万例。
与痴呆症相关的死亡仍然是一个全球性的健康问题，针对代谢风险因素的卫生政策可能是缓解这一问题的重要途径。
