TB Modelling Group and TB Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
J Infect Dis. 2024 Jul 25;230(1):e139-e143. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiae089.
An upcoming trial may provide further evidence that adolescent/adult-targeted BCG revaccination prevents sustained Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but its public health value depends on its impact on overall tuberculosis morbidity and mortality, which will remain unknown. Using previously calibrated models for India and South Africa, we simulated BCG revaccination assuming 45% prevention-of-infection efficacy, and we evaluated scenarios varying additional prevention-of-disease efficacy between +50% (reducing risk) and -50% (increasing risk). Given the assumed prevention-of-infection efficacy and range in prevention-of-disease efficacy, BCG revaccination may have a positive health impact and be cost-effective. This may be useful when considering future evaluations and implementation of adolescent/adult BCG revaccination.
一项即将开展的试验可能会提供进一步的证据，证明针对青少年/成年人的卡介苗复种可以预防持续的结核分枝杆菌感染，但它对整体结核病发病率和死亡率的影响仍不得而知。我们使用之前为印度和南非校准的模型，假设 45%的预防感染效果，模拟了卡介苗复种，并评估了预防疾病效果增加/减少 50%（降低风险）等不同场景。鉴于假设的预防感染效果和预防疾病效果的范围，卡介苗复种可能会产生积极的健康影响并具有成本效益。在考虑未来青少年/成年人卡介苗复种的评估和实施时，这可能是有用的。
