Asian Studies Center, James Madison College, and (by courtesy) Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA.
Indian Institute of Public Health Shillong, Shillong, Meghalaya, India.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2024 Jul;18(7):e13355. doi: 10.1111/irv.13355.
This paper examines the timing of one-time fluctuations in births subsequent to the 1918 influenza pandemic in Madras (now Chennai), India. After seasonally decomposing key demographic aggregates, we identified abrupt one-time fluctuations in excess births, deaths, and infant deaths. We found a contemporaneous spike in excess deaths and infant deaths and a 40-week lag between the spike in deaths and a subsequent deficit in births. The results suggest that India experienced the same kind of short-term postpandemic "baby bust" that was observed in the United States and other countries. Identifying the mechanisms underlying this widespread phenomenon remains an open question and an important topic for future research.
本文考察了印度马德拉斯（现钦奈）在 1918 年流感大流行后一次性生育波动的时间。在对主要人口统计数据进行季节性分解后，我们发现了超出预期的生育、死亡和婴儿死亡的一次性波动。我们发现同期死亡人数激增和婴儿死亡人数激增，以及死亡人数激增和随后出生人数减少之间存在 40 周的滞后。研究结果表明，印度经历了与美国和其他国家相同的短期大流行后“婴儿荒”。确定这种广泛现象的背后机制仍然是一个悬而未决的问题，也是未来研究的一个重要课题。
