Chungnam Economy Promotion Agency, Support Center for Community Revitalization, Yesan-gun 32416, Republic of Korea.
Department of Geography, Kongju National University, Kongju-si 32588, Republic of Korea.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2024 Jun 21;21(7):815. doi: 10.3390/ijerph21070815.
Heat vulnerability maps are vital for identifying at-risk areas and guiding interventions, yet their relationship with health outcomes is underexplored. This study investigates the uncertainty in heat vulnerability maps generated using health outcomes and various statistical models. We constructed vulnerability maps for 167 municipalities in Korea, focusing on the mild and severe health impacts of heat waves on morbidity and mortality. The outcomes included incidence rates of heat-related outpatient visits (morbidity) and attributable mortality rates (mortality) among individuals aged 65 years and older. To construct these maps, we utilized 11 socioeconomic variables related to population, climate, and economic factors. Both linear and nonlinear statistical models were employed to assign these socioeconomic variables to heat vulnerability. We observed variations in the crucial socioeconomic variables affecting morbidity and mortality in the vulnerability maps. Notably, nonlinear models depicted the spatial patterns of health outcomes more accurately than linear models, considering the relationship between health outcomes and socioeconomic variables. Our findings emphasize the differences in the spatial distribution of heat vulnerability based on health outcomes and the choice of statistical models. These insights underscore the importance of selecting appropriate models to enhance the reliability of heat vulnerability maps and their relevance for policy-making.
热脆弱性地图对于识别高风险地区和指导干预措施至关重要，但它们与健康结果的关系尚未得到充分探索。本研究调查了使用健康结果和各种统计模型生成的热脆弱性地图中的不确定性。我们针对韩国 167 个市/郡，构建了脆弱性地图，重点关注热浪对老年人发病率和死亡率的轻度和重度健康影响。结果包括与热相关的门诊就诊（发病率）和归因死亡率（死亡率）。为了构建这些地图，我们利用了与人口、气候和经济因素相关的 11 个社会经济变量。我们使用线性和非线性统计模型将这些社会经济变量分配给热脆弱性。我们观察到脆弱性地图中影响发病率和死亡率的关键社会经济变量存在差异。值得注意的是，非线性模型比线性模型更能准确描绘健康结果的空间模式，考虑到健康结果与社会经济变量之间的关系。我们的研究结果强调了基于健康结果和统计模型选择的热脆弱性空间分布的差异。这些发现突显了选择合适模型以提高热脆弱性地图的可靠性及其对决策的相关性的重要性。
