Austrian Research Centre for Forests BFW, Austria.
National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry "Marin Drăcea", Romania.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Nov 1;949:174950. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950. Epub 2024 Jul 26.
In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak (Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape.
近年来，栎冠网蝽（Corythucha arcuata）已成为欧洲栎树林的一大威胁。这种原产于北美的物种在过去二十年中迅速扩展了其在欧洲的分布范围，引发了人们对其可能对欧洲大陆宝贵栎树种群造成影响的担忧。为了解决这一日益严重的问题，我们进行了一项广泛的研究，评估了栎冠网蝽在欧洲的分布、定植模式和潜在生态位。我们从 21 个欧亚国家收集了 1792 个独特的存在坐标，利用了研究观察、公民科学倡议、GBIF 数据库和社交媒体报告等多种来源。为了描绘现实生态位和未来分布，我们采用了集合物种分布模型（SDM）框架。我们考虑了两种未来温室气体情景（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5），跨越三个时间间隔（2021-2040 年、2061-2080 年和 2081-2100 年），以预测和评估该物种在未来的潜在分布。我们的分析表明，到目前为止，即使在其适宜栖息地内，这个入侵昆虫的宿主物种丰富的热点地区仍然没有被入侵。此外，土耳其栎（Quercus cerris L.）和匈牙利栎（Quercus frainetto L.）的原生范围为栎冠网蝽提供了完全适宜的环境。相比之下，栓皮栎和麻栎的分布范围目前仅分别适合 40%和 50%的定植。然而，我们的预测模型表明，栎冠网蝽的栖息地适宜性发生了重大转变，这两种栎树的适宜性增加了高达 90%。这种转变突显了一个不断发展的景观，其中栎冠网蝽可能会利用更多其可用的栖息地，比最初预期的要多。它强调了采取积极措施来管理和阻止其不断扩大的存在的迫切需要，否则这可能对整个欧洲景观的栎树种群造成有害影响。
