Institute of Entomology, College of Life Sciences, Nankai University, Tianjin, China.
Collaborative Innovation Center of Recovery and Reconstruction of Degraded Ecosystems in Wanjiang Basin Co-founded by Anhui Province and Ministry of Education, School of Ecology and Environment, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, China.
Pest Manag Sci. 2024 Oct;80(10):5157-5167. doi: 10.1002/ps.8243. Epub 2024 Jun 22.
Climate change and pests are two major factors in the reduction of global soybean yields. The diversity and geographic distribution of soybean true bug pests vary across soybean production areas worldwide, and climate change impacts are different across species and regions. Therefore, we integrated spatial and temporal predictions at the global scale to predict the impact of global warming on the distribution of 84 soybean true bug pests by the maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) under present (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060) scenarios. We produced an ensemble projection of the potential distribution of pests and crop production areas to estimate how and where climate warming will augment the threat of soybean true bug pests to soybean production areas.
Our results indicated that Southeast North America, Central South America, Europe and East Asia were the regions with the higher richness of soybean true bug and the most vulnerable areas to invasion threats. Climate change would promote the expansion of the distribution range and facilitate pest movement pole wards, affecting more soybean cultivated areas located in mid-latitudes. Moreover, species with different distribution patterns responded differently to climate change in that large-ranged species tended to increase in occupancy over time, whereas small-ranged species tended to decrease.
This result indicates that some pests that have not yet become notable may have the chance to develop into serious pests in the future due to the expansion of their geographical range. Our findings highlight that soybean cultivated regions at mid-latitudes would face general infestations from soybean true bug pests under global warming. These results will further facilitate the formulation of adaptation planning to minimize local environmental impacts in the future. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.
气候变化和害虫是全球大豆产量减少的两个主要因素。全球范围内不同大豆产区的大豆真蝽害虫的多样性和地理分布存在差异，气候变化的影响在不同物种和地区也不同。因此，我们通过最大熵生态位模型（MaxEnt）整合了全球尺度的时空预测，预测了全球变暖对 84 种大豆真蝽害虫分布的影响，预测情景分别为当前（1970-2000 年）和未来（2041-2060 年）。我们对害虫和作物种植区的潜在分布进行了综合预测，以评估气候变暖将如何以及在何处增加大豆真蝽害虫对大豆种植区的威胁。
研究结果表明，北美东南部、中南美洲、欧洲和东亚是大豆真蝽种类丰富的地区，也是最容易受到入侵威胁的地区。气候变化将促进分布范围的扩大，并促进害虫向极地的迁移，影响更多位于中纬度地区的大豆种植区。此外，具有不同分布模式的物种对气候变化的反应不同，大分布范围的物种随着时间的推移往往会增加占有度，而小分布范围的物种往往会减少。
这一结果表明，由于地理范围的扩大，一些尚未成为显著害虫的物种将来可能有机会发展成为严重的害虫。我们的研究结果表明，在全球变暖的情况下，中纬度地区的大豆种植区将面临大豆真蝽害虫的普遍侵害。这些结果将进一步促进适应规划的制定，以尽量减少未来对当地环境的影响。 © 2024 化学工业学会。
