Thorne Karen M, MacDonald Glen M, Chavez Francisco P, Ambrose Richard F, Barnard Patrick L
U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Davis, CA 95618.
Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1524.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Aug 6;121(32):e2310077121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2310077121. Epub 2024 Jul 29.
Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California's coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California's sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California's iconic coastal region.
气候变化对沿海地区的环境和社会经济可持续性构成了生存威胁,其影响将是复杂且广泛的。来自加利福尼亚州及美国其他地区的证据表明,气候变化正在影响沿海社区,并使管理者面临众多已然存在的压力源。可以采取广泛的行动来维持加利福尼亚州的沿海生态系统和社区。从这个角度来看,我们强调对沿海可持续性的主要威胁:随着气候变化持续,偶发事件的复合效应不断放大,这将给该州带来前所未有的挑战。我们提出加利福尼亚州沿海地区可持续性面临的两个关键挑战:1)海平面加速上升并伴有风暴影响,以及2)海洋持续变暖与海洋热浪。这些复合型事件的连锁效应将在一个已然承受压力的系统背景下发生,该系统由于密集开发、资源开采与收获、空间限制以及其他人类利用压力而经历了广泛的改变。有一些关键要素可用于应对这些紧迫问题,包括涵盖不同群体和组织的共同管理策略、跨大面积区域的综合战略规划、解决方案的快速实施,以及针对加利福尼亚海岸的具有凝聚力且与政策相关的研究议程。该州已启动了许多相关工作,但规模可以扩大,时间线可以加快。此处呈现的观点和信息旨在帮助拓展讨论,以更明确地聚焦于如何促进加利福尼亚州标志性沿海地区的可持续性。