Graduate School of Social Welfare, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
College of Physical Education, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
Front Public Health. 2024 Jul 15;12:1411191. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1411191. eCollection 2024.
Although the regular exercise population is a key metric for gaging the success of China's fitness-for-all activities, effective policy approaches to increase mass sports participation remain unclear. Previous research suggests that GDP, educational attainment, sports resources, and meteorological conditions could influence regular exercise participation. Therefore, this study first analyzed the macro-level correlates influencing China's regular exercise population.
We utilize ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and geographical weighted regression (GWR) to theorize the relationship. The analysis encompasses data from the 31 administrative regions of Mainland China, as reported at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The log-log model enables us to quantify the marginal effect (elasticity) of the explanatory variables.
The OLS regression showed that regional GDP and the proportion of the population with a university education were significant predictors. In the global model, the marginal effects of regional GDP and university education were 0.048 and 0.173, respectively. Furthermore, the GWR revealed a distinct geographic pattern that corresponds to the classic Hu Line.
While regional GDP was also a significant correlate in our model, the elasticity demonstrates that university education had an asymmetric effect on China's regular exercise population. Therefore, this paper sheds light on a policy priority for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the strategic importance of expanding university education to enhance mass sports participation. In turn, a better-educated populace may yield significant secondary effects on public health and contribute to the high-quality development of the Chinese path to modernization.
尽管经常锻炼的人群是衡量中国全民健身活动成功与否的关键指标，但增加大众体育参与度的有效政策方法仍不清楚。先前的研究表明，国内生产总值（GDP）、教育程度、体育资源和气象条件都可能影响经常锻炼的参与度。因此，本研究首先分析了影响中国经常锻炼人群的宏观层面因素。
我们利用普通最小二乘法（OLS）回归和地理加权回归（GWR）进行理论分析。该分析涵盖了中国内地 31 个行政区域的数据，数据截止到“十三五”期末。对数-对数模型使我们能够量化解释变量的边际效应（弹性）。
OLS 回归表明，地区 GDP 和受过大学教育的人口比例是显著的预测因素。在全球模型中，地区 GDP 和大学教育的边际效应分别为 0.048 和 0.173。此外，GWR 揭示了与经典胡焕庸线相对应的明显地理模式。
虽然地区 GDP 也是我们模型中的一个重要因素，但弹性表明，大学教育对中国经常锻炼人群的影响具有不对称性。因此，本文为即将到来的“十四五”规划提供了政策重点，强调了扩大大学教育以提高大众体育参与度的战略重要性。反过来，受过更好教育的民众可能会对公众健康产生重大的二次影响，并为中国现代化道路的高质量发展做出贡献。
