Department of Psychology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA.
Wilhelm Wundt Institute for Psychology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany.
J Pers. 2024 Dec;92(6):1649-1667. doi: 10.1111/jopy.12964. Epub 2024 Jul 31.
Entringer et al. used longitudinal data from a German panel study to examine reciprocal causal effects between personality and religiosity, along with cultural moderators of these effects. The current paper examines the robustness of the original effects to alternative model specifications.
We reanalyzed the same four-wave data spanning 12 years (total N = 46,316), first replicating the original cross-lagged panel analyses and then extending these analyses in three ways: Using a random-intercept cross-lagged panel model, using observed rather than latent variables, and modeling each trait individually rather than simultaneously.
Correlations between personality and religiosity were all small in size, even when aggregating over 12 years. Lagged effects were very small, and none was robust across all model specifications. Cultural moderators also depended on model specifications.
The very small size of these reciprocal effects, along with their sensitivity to model specifications, suggest that conclusions about causal effects of personality and religiosity should be drawn very cautiously.
恩特林格等人利用德国面板研究的纵向数据，考察了人格和宗教信仰之间的相互因果关系，以及这些关系的文化调节因素。本研究旨在检验原始效应在替代模型规范下的稳健性。
我们重新分析了跨越 12 年的相同的四波数据（总人数=46316），首先复制了原始的交叉滞后面板分析，然后以三种方式扩展了这些分析：使用随机截距交叉滞后面板模型、使用观察变量而不是潜在变量，以及逐个而非同时对每个特质进行建模。
人格和宗教信仰之间的相关系数即使在 12 年内也很小。滞后效应非常小，而且在所有模型规范中都不稳健。文化调节因素也取决于模型规范。
这些相互作用的效应非常小，而且对模型规范敏感，这表明关于人格和宗教信仰因果效应的结论应该非常谨慎地得出。
