Brustio Paolo Riccardo, McAuley Alexander B T, Ungureanu Alexandru Nicolae, Kelly Adam Leigh
Department of Clinical and Biological Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
Neuromuscular Function Research Group, School of Exercise & Sport Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
Front Sports Act Living. 2024 Jul 17;6:1420220. doi: 10.3389/fspor.2024.1420220. eCollection 2024.
This study aimed to assess youth-to-senior transition rates, quantify the magnitude of relative age effect (RAEs), and evaluate how RAEs affect these transitions in 9,527 men's national football players of England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Regardless of national team, only -15%, 25%, and 40% of U17, U19, and U21 players successfully transitioned to the senior team, respectively, whilst -14%-24% progressed to senior level without being selected during youth. Data suggested a skewed birthdate distribution favouring relatively older players at U17, U19, and U21 levels across all countries, whereas RAEs were also present in England, Italy, and Spain at senior level. Youth-to-senior transition rates were modulated by birthdate at U17 and U19, whereby Q4 players were -2 and 1.5 times more likely to successfully transition at senior level than Q1 players, respectively. Selection at youth international level does not guarantee selection at senior level, but does make it more likely. Moreover, relatively younger athletes are disadvantaged in youth categories, although are more likely to transition to senior level once they have entered the pathway.
本研究旨在评估9527名英格兰、法国、德国、意大利和西班牙男子国家足球队球员从青年队到成年队的过渡率，量化相对年龄效应（RAEs）的大小，并评估RAEs如何影响这些过渡。无论国家队如何，只有15%、25%和40%的U17、U19和U21球员分别成功过渡到成年队，而14%-24%的球员在青年队期间未被选中但升入了成年队。数据表明，所有国家U17、U19和U21级别的出生日期分布都偏向相对年龄较大的球员，而在英格兰、意大利和西班牙的成年队中也存在RAEs。青年队到成年队的过渡率在U17和U19级别受出生日期调节，其中第4季度出生的球员在成年队成功过渡的可能性分别是第1季度出生球员的2倍和1.5倍。在青年国际比赛中被选中并不能保证在成年队中被选中，但确实会增加这种可能性。此外，相对年轻的运动员在青年组中处于劣势，尽管一旦他们进入这条道路，就更有可能过渡到成年队。
