Quantitative evaluation of the role of aging and non-aging factors for predicting threats from major chronic diseases and developing control strategies.

Various indicators exist to assess the threat of chronic diseases. This paper presents new ones to evaluate the role of aging and non-aging factors for predicting threats from major chronic diseases. Age at zero mortality (AM0) and age at average mortality (AMa) can be calculated by regressing age and mortality (the intercept indicates AM0, the slope indicates the observed slope and r indicates random non-aging factors). A regression equation can be created using AMa at the age of 72 and mortality at the age of 82; thus, the expected slope can be obtained for the aging factor without considering non-aging factors. It is possible to distinguish between aging and non-aging factors using the observed and expected slopes, which should be multiplied by r to produce an index of aging (IA). The lower the AM0, AMa or IA of a disease is, the greater the threat it poses to a population. The AM0 and IA were calculated using data from China (2004 and 2019) for various diseases [cancer, heart disease (HD), cerebrovascular disease (CVD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)]. We found the severity of threat was highest for cancer, CVD, other chronic diseases, HD and COPD in descending order in 2019. The results suggest that changes in threats may be related to socioeconomic development. Cancer was found to be the greatest threat to younger age groups, with IA<0.5, suggesting that non-aging risk factors may play an important role in cancers. Conversely, aging may play an important role in other chronic diseases, including HD, CVD, and COPD. Compared to 2004, the AM0 of cancer showed the greatest change. In conclusions, the different indicators explain different aspects of the problem and it would be beneficial to conduct in-depth research on the theoretical basis for the association of threats of disease with socioeconomic development in order to develop prevention and control strategies.