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索引犯罪时年龄超过 60 岁是否会影响性累犯风险?对超过 60 岁释放的男性的大规模比较。

Does Being Over 60 Years Old at Index Offense Impact Sexual Recidivism Risk? A Large-Scale Comparison of Men Released Over the Age of 60.

机构信息

Research Foundation for Mental Hygiene, Menands, NY, USA.

Division of Forensic Services, New York Office of Mental Health, Albany, NY, USA.

出版信息

Sex Abuse. 2024 Dec;36(8):901-925. doi: 10.1177/10790632241271167. Epub 2024 Aug 2.

DOI:10.1177/10790632241271167
PMID:39092621
Abstract

Research has consistently found risk for sexual recidivism drops as men convicted of a sexual offense age. One question that remains, however, is whether this age-related reduction in risk applies to men who commit their sexual offenses at an older age. The current study examined this question in a sample of 939 men who were screened for civil management and released to the community (mean follow-up = 6.33 years, = 3.98 years), by comparing the sexual recidivism rates of (a) 238 men convicted of sexual offenses committed over the age of 60 (Over-60 Index group), and (b) 701 men who committed sexual offenses under the age of 60 but who were released to the community over the age of 60 (Under-60 Index group). Even though the Under-60 Index group was significantly higher risk at release, the Over-60 Index group sexually recidivated at a significantly higher rate, a difference largely driven by the small group of men who had committed sexual offenses both under and over the age of 60. The Static-99R was a strong predictor of sexual recidivism regardless of age at sexual offending (i.e., just under 60, just over 60, or both under and over 60). The 2021 Routine Samples norms significantly overpredicted sexual recidivism for the Under-60 Index group and significantly underpredicted sexual recidivism for the Over-60 Index group, indicating that the use of the 2016 High Risk/High Needs norms could be more appropriate for the Over-60 Index group, particularly those men who sexually offended under the age of 60 before sexually offending over the age of 60.

摘要

研究一直发现,随着性犯罪被定罪的男性年龄的增长,性复发的风险会降低。然而,仍然存在一个问题,即这种与年龄相关的风险降低是否适用于在较年长时犯下性犯罪的男性。本研究在一个 939 名男性样本中检查了这个问题,这些男性因民事管理而被筛选并被释放到社区(平均随访=6.33 年,SD=3.98 年),通过比较(a)238 名被判犯有 60 岁以上性犯罪的男性(60 岁以上指数组)和(b)701 名在 60 岁以下犯下性犯罪但在 60 岁以上被释放到社区的男性(60 岁以下指数组)的性复发率。尽管 60 岁以下指数组在释放时风险明显更高,但 60 岁以上指数组的性复发率明显更高,这种差异主要是由一小部分既在 60 岁以下又在 60 岁以上犯下性犯罪的男性驱动的。静态 99R 是性复发的强有力预测因素,无论性犯罪年龄如何(即,刚低于 60 岁,刚超过 60 岁,或均低于和超过 60 岁)。2021 年常规样本规范对 60 岁以下指数组的性复发预测过高,对 60 岁以上指数组的性复发预测过低,表明使用 2016 年高风险/高需求规范可能更适合 60 岁以上指数组,特别是那些在 60 岁以下性犯罪后又在 60 岁以上性犯罪的男性。

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