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与Static-99R和Static-2002R分数相关的性犯罪再犯率是多少?

What Sexual Recidivism Rates Are Associated With Static-99R and Static-2002R Scores?

作者信息

Hanson R Karl, Thornton David, Helmus Leslie-Maaike, Babchishin Kelly M

机构信息

Public Safety Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Sand Ridge Secure Treatment Center, Madison, WI, USA.

出版信息

Sex Abuse. 2016 Apr;28(3):218-52. doi: 10.1177/1079063215574710. Epub 2015 Mar 25.

Abstract

Empirical actuarial risk tools are routinely used to assess the recidivism risk of adult sexual offenders. Compared with other forms of risk assessment, one advantage of actuarial risk tools is that they provide recidivism rate estimates. Previous research, however, suggests that there is considerable variability in the recidivism rates associated with the most commonly used sexual offender risk assessment tools (Static-99/R, Static-2002/R). The current study examined the extent to which the variability in the recidivism rates across 21 Static-99R studies (N = 8,805) corresponded to the normative groups proposed by the STATIC development group (routine, treatment, high risk/high need). We found strong evidence that routine (i.e., complete) samples were, on average, less likely to reoffend with a sexual offense than offenders in the high-risk/high-need samples (i.e., those explicitly preselected on risk-relevant variables external to STATIC scales). The differences between routine/complete and high-risk/high-need samples, however, were only consistently observed for offenders with low or moderate scores; for offenders with high STATIC scores, the 5-year sexual recidivism rates for these two groups were not meaningfully different. There was only limited evidence to support treatment samples as a distinct sample type; consequently, the use of separate normative tables for treatment samples is not recommended. The current results reinforce the value of regularly updating the norms for empirical actuarial risk tools. Options are discussed on how STATIC scores could be used to inform recidivism rates estimates in applied assessments.

摘要

经验性精算风险工具通常用于评估成年性犯罪者的再犯风险。与其他形式的风险评估相比,精算风险工具的一个优势在于它们能提供再犯率估计。然而,先前的研究表明,与最常用的性犯罪者风险评估工具(Static-99/R、Static-2002/R)相关的再犯率存在相当大的差异。本研究考察了21项Static-99R研究(N = 8,805)中再犯率的差异程度与STATIC开发组提出的规范组(常规、治疗、高风险/高需求)的对应情况。我们发现有力证据表明,平均而言,常规(即完整)样本比高风险/高需求样本(即那些根据STATIC量表外部与风险相关的变量明确预先选择的样本)中的犯罪者再次实施性犯罪的可能性更小。然而,常规/完整样本与高风险/高需求样本之间的差异仅在得分低或中等的犯罪者中一致观察到;对于STATIC得分高的犯罪者,这两组的5年性再犯率没有显著差异。仅有有限的证据支持将治疗样本作为一种独特的样本类型;因此,不建议为治疗样本使用单独的规范表。当前结果强化了定期更新经验性精算风险工具规范的价值。讨论了如何使用STATIC得分来为应用评估中的再犯率估计提供信息的选项。

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