Hunziker Betatech AG, Pflanzschulstrasse 17, CH-8400, Winterthur, Switzerland.
Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Überlandstrasse 133, CH-8600, Dübendorf, Switzerland.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Sep;367:121962. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121962. Epub 2024 Aug 1.
Many public environmental decisions are wicked problems due to high complexity and uncertainty. We test a participatory value-based framework based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to tackle such problems. Our framework addresses two important gaps identified in reviews of MCDA applications to environmental problems: including stakeholders and treating uncertainty. We applied our framework in two complex real-world cases concerning a paradigm shift in the wastewater sector; the transition from centralized wastewater systems to decentralized non-grid systems. Non-grid systems may solve some problems of centralized systems by reducing costs, increasing flexibility, and addressing growing demands on environmental issues, especially in rural areas. But non-grid systems have rarely been implemented in OECD countries, because it is unclear whether a transition is recommendable, and whether stakeholders would accept this shift. This problem allows addressing several fundamental research questions. As theoretical contribution, we found that stakeholder participation in MCDA is necessary, because different preferences of stakeholders can lead to different best-performing options in the assessments. Compared to the typical integrated assessment (IA) approach that excludes stakeholders' preferences, the MCDA process led to clearer outcomes. Results indicate that including the uncertainty of predicted consequences of options with Monte Carlo simulation helped discriminate between options and identify best-performing options. Challenging the uncertainty of elicited stakeholder preferences with sensitivity analyses, we found that best-performing options were especially sensitive to the MCDA aggregation model. Despite the high uncertainty, it was possible to suggest robust consensus options that would perform reasonably well for all stakeholders. As practical contribution, results indicated that a transition from the centralized to decentralized non-grid systems seems feasible. Most stakeholders assigned highest weights to environmental protection objectives in decision-making workshops. These stakeholder preferences implemented in MCDA led to a generally better assessment of innovative non-grid systems, especially when including urine source separation. Stakeholders perceived the MCDA process as beneficial and found results plausible. We conclude that the proposed participatory value-based framework is rigorous, but still feasible in practice. The framework is certainly transferable to any context and is open to testing and refinement in various applications to wicked decision problems.
许多公共环境决策都是棘手问题，因为它们具有高度的复杂性和不确定性。我们测试了一种基于多准则决策分析（MCDA）的参与式价值框架，以解决此类问题。我们的框架解决了 MCDA 应用于环境问题的综述中确定的两个重要差距：包括利益相关者和处理不确定性。我们在两个复杂的现实案例中应用了我们的框架，这些案例涉及废水领域的范式转变；从集中式废水系统向分散式非网格系统的过渡。非网格系统可以通过降低成本、提高灵活性和解决对环境问题的日益增长的需求来解决集中式系统的一些问题，尤其是在农村地区。但是，非网格系统在经合组织国家很少实施，因为不清楚是否值得进行过渡，以及利益相关者是否会接受这种转变。这个问题可以解决几个基本的研究问题。作为理论贡献，我们发现利益相关者参与 MCDA 是必要的，因为不同的利益相关者偏好可能会导致评估中不同的最佳表现选项。与排除利益相关者偏好的典型综合评估（IA）方法相比，MCDA 过程导致了更清晰的结果。结果表明，通过蒙特卡罗模拟包含对选项结果的预测不确定性有助于区分选项并确定最佳表现选项。通过敏感性分析挑战利益相关者偏好的不确定性，我们发现最佳表现选项对 MCDA 聚合模型特别敏感。尽管存在高度的不确定性，但仍然可以提出稳健的共识选项，这些选项对所有利益相关者的表现都相当不错。作为实际贡献，结果表明从集中式向分散式非网格系统的过渡似乎是可行的。在决策研讨会中，大多数利益相关者对环境保护目标赋予了最高权重。这些在 MCDA 中实施的利益相关者偏好导致对创新的非网格系统的评估总体上更好，尤其是当包括尿液源分离时。利益相关者认为 MCDA 过程是有益的，并认为结果是合理的。我们得出结论，提出的参与式价值框架既严格又在实践中可行。该框架当然可以转移到任何情况下，并可以在各种棘手决策问题的应用中进行测试和完善。
