State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Nov 1;949:175181. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175181. Epub 2024 Jul 31.
The impacts of various drought types on autumn phenology have yet to be extensively explored. We address the influence of pre-season agricultural and meteorological droughts on autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere. To this end, enhanced autumn phenology models incorporating drought factors was developed, contributing to a deeper understanding of these complex interactions. The study reveals that there was no significant trend of advancement or delay in the End of Season (EOS) across the Northern Hemisphere based on SIF estimates from 2001 to 2020. The cumulative and delayed impacts of pre-season agricultural drought on EOS were found to be more pronounced than those associated with meteorological drought. The analysis of various evaluation indexes shows that the performance of the Cooling Degree Days (CDD) model incorporating the Standardized Soil Moisture Drought Index (CDD) in simulating EOS in the Northern Hemisphere is >14 % higher than that of the standard CDD model. Additionally, the performance of the CDD model with the Standardized Precipitation Index (CDD) in simulating EOS in the Northern Hemisphere is improved by >5.6 % compared to the standard CDD model. A comparison of future EOS projections across various models reveals that the CDD model significantly overestimates EOS in different scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The CDD model projects EOS approximately 7 days earlier than the CDD model, and the CDD model projects EOS approximately 5 days earlier than the CDD model. This study highlights the diverse impacts of drought types on plant autumn phenology and underscores the significance of parameterizing drought impacts in autumn phenology models.
各种干旱类型对秋季物候的影响尚未得到广泛探讨。我们研究了 preseason农业和气象干旱对北半球秋季物候的影响。为此，我们开发了一种增强的秋季物候模型，纳入了干旱因素，从而更深入地了解了这些复杂的相互作用。研究表明，根据 2001 年至 2020 年的 SIF 估计，北半球的季末（EOS）没有明显的提前或延迟趋势。 preseason 农业干旱对 EOS 的累积和延迟影响比气象干旱更为显著。各种评估指标的分析表明，在模拟北半球 EOS 时，纳入标准化土壤水分干旱指数（CDD）的冷却度日（CDD）模型的性能比标准 CDD 模型高>14%。此外，在模拟北半球 EOS 时，纳入标准化降水指数（CDD）的 CDD 模型的性能比标准 CDD 模型提高了>5.6%。不同模型对未来 EOS 预测的比较表明，CDD 模型在不同情景（SSP245 和 SSP585）下显著高估了 EOS。CDD 模型预测 EOS 比 CDD 模型提前约 7 天，而 CDD 模型预测 EOS 比 CDD 模型提前约 5 天。本研究强调了干旱类型对植物秋季物候的不同影响，并突出了在秋季物候模型中参数化干旱影响的重要性。
