中国 2010-2012 年结核传播流建模。

Modeling tuberculosis transmission flow in China, 2010-2012.

机构信息

College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, KaiFeng, 475001, China.

Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Henan University, Ministry of Education, KaiFeng, 475001, China.

出版信息

BMC Infect Dis. 2024 Aug 5;24(1):784. doi: 10.1186/s12879-024-09649-7.

DOI:10.1186/s12879-024-09649-7

PMID:39103752

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11301846/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

China has the third largest number of TB cases in the world, and the average annual floating population in China is more than 200 million, the increasing floating population across regions has a tremendous potential for spreading infectious diseases, however, the role of increasing massive floating population in tuberculosis transmission is yet unclear in China.

METHODS

29,667 tuberculosis flow data were derived from the new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases in China. Spatial variation of TB transmission was measured by geodetector q-statistic and spatial interaction model was used to model the tuberculosis flow and the regional socioeconomic factors.

RESULTS

Tuberculosis transmission flow presented spatial heterogeneity. The Pearl River Delta in southern China and the Yangtze River Delta along China's east coast presented as the largest destination and concentration areas of tuberculosis inflows. Socioeconomic factors were determinants of tuberculosis flow. Some impact factors showed different spatial associations with tuberculosis transmission flow. A 10% increase in per capita GDP was associated with 10.2% in 2010 or 2.1% in 2012 decrease in tuberculosis outflows from the provinces of origin, and 1.2% in 2010 or 0.5% increase in tuberculosis inflows to the destinations and 18.9% increase in intraprovincial flow in 2012. Per capita net income of rural households and per capita disposable income of urban households were positively associated with tuberculosis flows. A 10% increase in per capita net income corresponded to 14.0% in 2010 or 3.6% in 2012 increase in outflows from the origin, 44.2% in 2010 or 12.8% increase in inflows to the destinations and 47.9% increase in intraprovincial flows in 2012. Tuberculosis incidence had positive impacts on tuberculosis flows. A 10% increase in the number of tuberculosis cases corresponded to 2.2% in 2010 or 1.1% in 2012 increase in tuberculosis inflows to the destinations, 5.2% in 2010 or 2.0% in 2012 increase in outflows from the origins, 11.5% in 2010 or 2.2% in 2012 increase in intraprovincial flows.

CONCLUSIONS

Tuberculosis flows had clear spatial stratified heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation, regional socio-economic characteristics had diverse and statistically significant effects on tuberculosis flows in the origin and destination, and income factor played an important role among the determinants.

摘要

背景

中国是世界上结核病病例数排名第三的国家，且中国的流动人口年平均数量超过 2 亿。流动人口在地区间的不断增加，对传染病的传播有着巨大的潜在风险。然而，流动人口的增加在中国结核病传播中的作用尚不清楚。

方法

从中国新的涂阳肺结核病例中获得了 29667 例结核病流动数据。利用地理探测器 q 统计量测量结核病传播的空间变异性，并使用空间交互模型来模拟结核病流动和区域社会经济因素。

结果

结核病传播流呈现出空间异质性。中国南部的珠江三角洲和中国东部沿海的长江三角洲是结核病流入的最大目的地和集中地区。社会经济因素是结核病流动的决定因素。一些影响因素与结核病传播流显示出不同的空间关联。人均国内生产总值每增加 10%，则 2010 年或 2012 年来自原籍省份的结核病流出量将分别减少 10.2%或 2.1%，2010 年或 2012 年结核病流入目的地的流入量将分别增加 1.2%或 0.5%，2012 年省内流动将增加 18.9%。农村家庭人均纯收入和城镇家庭人均可支配收入与结核病流动呈正相关。人均纯收入每增加 10%，则 2010 年或 2012 年原籍流出量将分别增加 14.0%或 3.6%，2010 年或 2012 年流入目的地的流入量将分别增加 44.2%或 12.8%，2012 年省内流动将增加 47.9%。结核病发病率对结核病流动有正向影响。结核病病例数每增加 10%，则 2010 年或 2012 年流入目的地的结核病流入量将分别增加 2.2%或 1.1%，2010 年或 2012 年原籍流出量将分别增加 5.2%或 2.0%，2010 年或 2012 年省内流动将分别增加 11.5%或 2.2%。