Department of Life Sciences and Systems Biology, University of Turin, Turin, 10123, Italy.
Department of Earth, Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Genoa, Genoa, 16132, Italy.
BMC Ecol Evol. 2024 Aug 5;24(1):106. doi: 10.1186/s12862-024-02295-2.
Understanding how endangered species respond to climatic changes is fundamental for their conservation. Due to its restricted geographic range, its sensitivity to the ongoing global warming and its continuing decline, the Southwestern-Alpine endemic wolf spider Vesubia jugorum is currently classified as Endangered in the IUCN Red List. Here, we combined species distribution modelling (SDM) and phylogeographic inference to describe the present, the past and the future of this species in light of the mtDNA genetic structure of extant populations.
Phylogenetic and network analyses show a high level of genetic differentiation and a strong genetic structure of the populations, likely explicable by a long history of isolation and survival in separate refugia. The SDM projection into past climatic conditions supports these results by showing a smaller distribution range compared to present, mostly restricted to the Maritime and Ligurian Alps, which possibly served as main refugium. Future forecast shows a significant shift in the bioclimatic range towards higher altitudes and latitudes, with a drastic decrease of habitat suitability in the central and south-eastern parts of the range, with consequent general loss of haplotype diversity.
SDM and phylogeographic inference support the hypothesis that the current distribution and the genetic structure of the extant populations mirror the survival in situ of Vesubia jugorum across repeated glacial and interglacial phases, in line with the 'long-term stability hypothesis'. Future predictions show a significant shift in the bioclimatic range that V. jugorum will be likely unable to track, with profound impact on its long-term survival and its genetic diversity. Our considerations have implication for conservation genetics, highlighting the pivotal role of the transboundary protected areas of the SW-Alps in promoting conservation efforts for this species.
了解濒危物种对气候变化的反应对于它们的保护至关重要。由于其地理分布范围有限、对正在发生的全球变暖敏感以及持续减少，西南阿尔卑斯山特有狼蛛 Vesubia jugorum 目前被列入 IUCN 红色名录的濒危物种。在这里，我们结合物种分布模型（SDM）和系统地理学推断，根据现存种群的 mtDNA 遗传结构，描述了该物种的现状、过去和未来。
系统发育和网络分析显示，种群具有高度的遗传分化和强烈的遗传结构，这可能是由于长期的隔离和在不同的避难所中生存所致。SDM 对过去气候条件的预测结果支持了这一结果，表明与现在相比，其分布范围较小，主要局限于海洋和利古里亚阿尔卑斯山，这些地区可能是主要的避难所。未来的预测显示，生物气候范围将向更高的海拔和纬度显著转移，其栖息地适宜性在该物种分布范围的中部和东南部急剧下降，导致单倍型多样性的普遍丧失。
SDM 和系统地理学推断支持了这样一种假设，即现存种群的分布和遗传结构反映了 Vesubia jugorum 在多次冰川和间冰期阶段的原地生存，这与“长期稳定假说”相符。未来的预测显示，生物气候范围将发生重大转变，Vesubia jugorum 可能无法追踪这一变化，这将对其长期生存和遗传多样性产生深远影响。我们的考虑对保护遗传学具有启示意义，突出了西南阿尔卑斯山跨界保护区在促进该物种保护努力方面的关键作用。
