Brunetti Matteo, Magoga Giulia, Iannella Mattia, Biondi Maurizio, Montagna Matteo
Dipartimento di Scienze Agrarie e Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria, 2, 20133 Milan, Italy Università degli Studi di Milano Milan Italy.
Dipartimento di Medicina clinica, Sanità pubblica, Scienze della Vita e dell'Ambiente, Università degli Studi dell'Aquila, Via Vetoio, 67100 Coppito, Italy Università degli Studi dell'Aquila Coppito Italy.
Zookeys. 2019 Jun 17;856:3-25. doi: 10.3897/zookeys.856.32462. eCollection 2019.
The alternation of glacial and interglacial cycles of the Quaternary period contributed in shaping the current species distribution. Cold-adapted organisms experienced range expansion and contraction in response to the temperature decrease and increase, respectively. In this study, a fragment of the mitochondrial marker COI was used to investigate the phylogeography of , a cold-adapted alpine leaf beetle species endemic of Orobie Alps, northern Italy. The relationships among populations, their divergence time, and the most probable migration model were estimated and are discussed in light of the Pleistocene climate oscillations. Through a species distribution modelling analysis, the current habitat suitability was assessed and the distribution in a future global warming scenario predicted. The main divergence events that led to the actual population structure took place from ~750,000 to ~150,000 years ago, almost following the pattern of the climate oscillations that led to the increase of the connections between the populations during cold periods and the isolation on massifs in warm periods. The most supported migration model suggests that the species survived to past adverse climatic conditions within refugia inside and at the limit of the actual range. The species distribution modelling analysis showed that is extremely sensitive to air temperature variations, thus the increase of temperature caused by global warming will reduce the suitable areas within the species range, leading to its possible extinction in the next 50 years. is a representative case of how cold adapted and limited distributed species have been and could be affected by climate change, that highlights the implementation of conservation actions.
第四纪时期冰川期与间冰期的交替对当前物种分布的形成起到了作用。适应寒冷的生物分别随着温度降低和升高经历了分布范围的扩张和收缩。在本研究中，线粒体标记细胞色素氧化酶亚基I（COI）的一个片段被用于研究一种适应寒冷的高山叶甲虫的系统地理学，该叶甲虫是意大利北部奥罗比耶阿尔卑斯山特有的物种。根据更新世气候振荡，估计并讨论了种群之间的关系、它们的分化时间以及最可能的迁移模型。通过物种分布建模分析，评估了当前的栖息地适宜性，并预测了未来全球变暖情景下的分布情况。导致实际种群结构的主要分化事件发生在约75万至约15万年前，几乎遵循了气候振荡的模式，即在寒冷时期导致种群之间联系增加，而在温暖时期导致种群在地块上隔离。最受支持的迁移模型表明，该物种在实际分布范围内部和边缘的避难所中在过去的不利气候条件下存活了下来。物种分布建模分析表明，该物种对气温变化极为敏感，因此全球变暖导致的温度升高将减少该物种分布范围内的适宜区域，导致其在未来50年内可能灭绝。这是一个典型案例，展示了适应寒冷且分布有限的物种过去以及未来可能如何受到气候变化的影响，突出了实施保护行动的必要性。
