Burgess Colleen, Lisul Bogdan, Pawaskar Manjiri, Petigara Tanaz, Murtagh Janice, Kanazir Milena, Loncarevic Goranka, Carias Cristina
From the Merck & Co., Inc., Value and Implementation - Outcomes Research, Rahway, NJ.
MSD Serbia, Global Medical Affairs SEE, Belgrade, Serbia.
Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2024 Oct 1;43(10):1011-1017. doi: 10.1097/INF.0000000000004487. Epub 2024 Sep 16.
Measles is highly infectious, requiring ≥95% vaccine coverage rate (VCR) to prevent outbreaks. This study aimed to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on routine measles-containing vaccine (MCV) VCRs in Serbia and estimate national and regional catch-up vaccination required to prevent outbreaks.
A multiplier model was used to calculate annual MCV dose 1 (MCV1) and MCV dose 2 (MCV2) VCRs for children 1-6 and 6-12 years of age, respectively, for 2011-2022. Postpandemic (2023-2024) VCRs were modeled. The numbers of administered doses were compared to prepandemic and postpandemic, and monthly catch-up rates were calculated for 12-, 18- and 24-month campaigns.
Between prepandemic and pandemic periods, national MCV1 VCR decreased from 88% to 81%, while MCV2 VCR decreased from 92% to 89%, corresponding to 20,856 missed MCV1 and 8760 missed MCV2 doses. Assuming national VCRs returned to prepandemic levels post-2022, 18% of children 1-6 years of age and 11% of children 6-12 years of age would have missed their MCV1 and MCV2 doses, respectively, by 2024. To catch up missed doses under this scenario, most regions would require monthly catch-up rates of 25%, 16% or 12% for MCV1 and 14%, 9% or 7% for MCV2, considering 12-, 18- or 24-month campaigns, respectively.
The pandemic negatively impacted MCV VCRs in Serbia, leaving a sizeable proportion of children with missed doses. Significant catch-up efforts are required to recover VCRs to prepandemic levels and avoid future measles outbreaks, with increased monthly administration rates versus those in prepandemic periods.
麻疹具有高度传染性，需要疫苗接种覆盖率（VCR）≥95%才能预防疫情爆发。本研究旨在了解新冠疫情对塞尔维亚含麻疹疫苗常规VCR的影响，并估计预防疫情爆发所需的全国和地区补种疫苗情况。
采用乘数模型分别计算2011 - 2022年1 - 6岁和6 - 12岁儿童的年度第一剂含麻疹疫苗（MCV1）和第二剂含麻疹疫苗（MCV2）的VCR。对疫情后（2023 - 2024年）的VCR进行建模。将接种剂量数量与疫情前和疫情后进行比较，并计算12个月、18个月和24个月接种活动的月度补种率。
在疫情前和疫情期间，全国MCV1的VCR从88%降至81%，而MCV2的VCR从92%降至89%，分别对应20856剂MCV1和8760剂MCV2漏种。假设2022年后全国VCR恢复到疫情前水平，到2024年，1 - 6岁儿童中有18%、6 - 12岁儿童中有11%将分别漏种MCV1和MCV2。在这种情况下，为补种漏种剂量，考虑12个月、18个月或24个月的接种活动，大多数地区MCV1的月度补种率分别需要25%、16%或12%，MCV2的月度补种率分别需要14%、9%或7%。
疫情对塞尔维亚的MCV VCR产生了负面影响，导致相当一部分儿童漏种疫苗。需要做出重大的补种努力，将VCR恢复到疫情前水平，避免未来麻疹疫情爆发，且月度接种率要高于疫情前时期。
