Zhang Ying, Jia Xiaocan, Yang Yongli, Sun Na, Shi Shuyan, Wang Wei
Department of Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China.
Department of Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China; Henan Medical Association, Zhengzhou, 450003, China.
J Psychiatr Res. 2024 Oct;178:16-22. doi: 10.1016/j.jpsychires.2024.07.054. Epub 2024 Aug 2.
Depression is a global health challenge, but only a few studies have fully assessed and predicted the disease burden. This study described the trend of global depression burden from 1990 to 2019 through age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life rate (ASDR), and predicted the number of cases of depression during 2020-2030.
Linear regression analysis was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age-standardized rates. The trends of global depression burden from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) across various regions. Finally, we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict the disease burden in the coming 10 years.
Globally, the ASIR of depression decreased from 3681.24 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 3588.25 per 100,000 population in 2019 and the EAPC was -0.29%. ASDR also decreased, following a similar trend as the ASIR. The highest ASDR was observed in adults aged 60-64 years. The burden of depressive illness was higher in women, with the greatest increase in incidence in low SDI areas. BAPC predicted that the worldwide ASIR and ASDR of depression would stabilize from 2020 to 2030, with an increasing number of cases. By 2030, the ASIR was estimated to be 2519.88 per 100,000 men and 3835.11 per 100,000 women.
From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of depression remained significant, especially among women. It is important to address depression in older people, and it is therefore necessary to develop measures for prevention.
抑郁症是一项全球性的健康挑战，但仅有少数研究对疾病负担进行了全面评估和预测。本研究通过年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化伤残调整生命率（ASDR）描述了1990年至2019年全球抑郁症负担的趋势，并预测了2020年至2030年期间抑郁症的病例数。
采用线性回归分析计算年龄标准化率的估计年变化百分比（EAPC）。通过年龄、性别和社会人口指数（SDI）分析了1990年至2019年各地区全球抑郁症负担的趋势。最后，我们使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测未来10年的疾病负担。
在全球范围内，抑郁症的ASIR从1990年的每10万人3681.24例降至2019年的每10万人3588.25例，EAPC为-0.29%。ASDR也呈下降趋势，与ASIR趋势相似。60-64岁成年人的ASDR最高。女性抑郁症的疾病负担更高，低SDI地区的发病率增长最大。BAPC预测，2020年至2030年全球抑郁症的ASIR和ASDR将趋于稳定，但病例数会增加。到2030年，估计每10万男性的ASIR为2519.88例，每10万女性为3835.11例。
1990年至2019年，全球抑郁症负担依然严重，尤其是在女性中。关注老年人的抑郁症问题很重要，因此有必要制定预防措施。
