Civil Engineering Department, Harran University, Sanliurfa, Turkey; Department of Engineering, University of Durham, South Road, DH1 3LE, United Kingdom.
College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University Mohammed VI Polytechnic, Benguerir, Morocco.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Sep;367:122019. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122019. Epub 2024 Aug 5.
The present study evaluates the future drought hazard in Morocco using a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach. First, the artificial neural network-based MME is constructed using the General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Climate Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) which are most successful in representing the historical temperature and precipitation values. Next, the future changes in the precipitation, Potential EvapoTranspiration (PET) calculated using temperatures data, aridity index, and drought indices calculated via the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values were projected for the historical period 1980-2014, near future 2025-2050, mid future 2051-2075, and far future 2076-2100. The obtained results indicate that there will be a decrease in values of the precipitation and an increase in values of the PET, leading to an increase in aridity risk for Morocco. The future projections using the SPEI results show that the average index values will mostly be in the drought zone, indicating that the drought severity will increase. The spatial analysis of SPEI values in different regions of Morocco demonstrates that the northern part of the country has relatively more drought occurrences, and drought severity tends to increase with each passing period. The study also reveals that drought severity will significantly increase after 2050 in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario. The research concludes that the increase in drought severity will significantly impact Morocco's water resources, agriculture and food security among others.
本研究使用多模式集合（MME）方法评估摩洛哥未来的干旱灾害。首先，使用气候模型比较计划阶段 6（CMIP6）中的基于人工神经网络的 MME 构建，这些模型在代表历史温度和降水值方面最为成功。接下来，预测了 1980-2014 年历史时期、2025-2050 年近期、2051-2075 年中期和 2076-2100 年远期的降水、利用温度数据计算的潜在蒸散量（PET）、干旱指数以及通过标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）值计算的干旱指数的未来变化。研究结果表明，降水值将减少，而 PET 值将增加，这将导致摩洛哥的干旱风险增加。使用 SPEI 结果进行的未来预测表明，平均指数值将主要处于干旱带，表明干旱严重程度将增加。对摩洛哥不同地区 SPEI 值的空间分析表明，该国北部地区相对更频繁地发生干旱，而且随着时间的推移，干旱严重程度趋于增加。研究还表明，在共享社会经济路径 5-8.5（SSP5-8.5）情景下，2050 年后干旱严重程度将显著增加。研究得出结论，干旱严重程度的增加将对摩洛哥的水资源、农业和粮食安全等产生重大影响。
