Wysocki Adrian, Wierzcholska Sylwia, Proćków Jarosław, Konowalik Kamil
Department of Plant Biology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Kożuchowska 7a, 51-631, Wrocław, Poland.
Department of Botany and Plant Ecology, Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Pl. Grunwaldzki 24a, 50-363, Wrocław, Poland.
Sci Rep. 2024 Aug 8;14(1):18388. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-69041-y.
Climate change significantly impacts the distribution of woody plants, indirectly influencing the dynamics of entire ecosystems. Understanding species' varied responses to the environment and their reliance on biotic interactions is crucial for predicting the global changes' impact on woodland biodiversity. Our study focusses on Dicranum viride, a moss of conservation priority, and its dependence on specific phorophytes (host trees). Using species distribution modelling (SDM) techniques, we initially modelled its distribution using climate-only variables. As a novel approach, we also modelled the distribution of the main phorophyte species and incorporated them into D. viride SDM alongside climate data. Finally, we analysed the overlap of climatic and geographic niches between the epiphyte and the phorophytes. Inclusion of biotic interactions significantly improved model performance, with phorophyte availability emerging as the primary predictor. This underscores the significance of epiphyte-phorophyte interactions, supported by substantial niche overlap. Predictions indicate a potential decline in the suitability of most of the current areas for D. viride, with noticeable shifts towards the northern regions of Europe. Our study underscores the importance of incorporating biotic interactions into SDMs, especially for dependent organisms. Understanding such connections is essential to implement successful conservation strategies and adapt forest management practices to environmental changes.
气候变化对木本植物的分布产生重大影响，间接影响整个生态系统的动态。了解物种对环境的不同反应及其对生物相互作用的依赖，对于预测全球变化对林地生物多样性的影响至关重要。我们的研究聚焦于优先保护的藓类植物绿立碗藓（Dicranum viride）及其对特定附主植物（寄主树）的依赖。利用物种分布模型（SDM）技术，我们首先仅使用气候变量对其分布进行建模。作为一种新方法，我们还对主要附主植物物种的分布进行建模，并将其与气候数据一起纳入绿立碗藓的SDM中。最后，我们分析了附生植物与附主植物之间气候生态位和地理生态位的重叠情况。纳入生物相互作用显著提高了模型性能，附主植物的可利用性成为主要预测因子。这突出了附生植物与附主植物相互作用的重要性，大量的生态位重叠为此提供了支持。预测表明，目前大多数地区对绿立碗藓的适宜性可能下降，明显向欧洲北部地区转移。我们的研究强调了将生物相互作用纳入SDM的重要性，特别是对于依赖型生物。了解此类联系对于实施成功的保护策略以及使森林管理实践适应环境变化至关重要。
