Reduction scenarios of plastic waste emission guided by the probability distribution model to avoid additional ocean plastic pollution by 2050s.

Marine plastic pollution is progressing worldwide and will become increasingly serious if plastic waste emissions continue at the current rate or increase with economic growth. Here, we report a particle tracking-based probability distribution model for predicting the abundances of marine macroplastics and microplastics, which undergo generation, transport, and removal processes in the world's upper ocean, under various scenarios of future land-to-sea plastic waste emissions. To achieve the Osaka Blue Ocean Vision, which aims to reduce additional pollution by marine plastic litter to zero by 2050, plastic waste emission in ∼2035 should be reduced by at least 32 % relative to 2019. It is necessary to take stringent measures such as 'system change scenario' or 'improve waste management scenario' proposed in previous studies to reduce the marine plastic pollution by 2050.