The last of their kind: Is the genus Scutiger (Anura: Megophryidae) a relict element of the paleo-Transhimalaya biota?

The orographic evolution of the Himalaya-Tibet Mountain system continues to be a subject of controversy, leading to considerable uncertainty regarding the environment and surface elevation of the Tibetan Plateau during the Cenozoic era. As many geoscientific (but not paleontological) studies suggest, elevations close to modern heights exist in vast areas of Tibet since at least the late Paleogene, implicating the presence of large-scale alpine environments for more than 30 million years. To explore a recently proposed alternative model that assumes a warm temperate environment across paleo-Tibet, we carried out a phylogeographic survey using genomic analyses of samples covering the range of endemic lazy toads (Scutiger) across the Himalaya-Tibet orogen. We identified two main clades, with several, geographically distinct subclades. The long temporal gap between the stem and crown age of Scutiger may suggest high extinction rates. Diversification within the crown group, depending on the calibration, occurred either from the Mid-Miocene or Late-Miocene and continued until the Holocene. The present-day Himalayan Scutiger fauna could have evolved from lineages that existed on the southern edges of the paleo-Tibetan area (the Transhimalaya = Gangdese Shan), while extant species living on the eastern edge of the Plateau originated probably from the eastern edges of northern parts of the ancestral Tibetan area (Hoh Xil, Tanggula Shan). Based on the Mid-Miocene divergence time estimation and ancestral area reconstruction, we propose that uplift-associated aridification of a warm temperate Miocene-Tibet, coupled with high extirpation rates of ancestral populations, and species range shifts along drainage systems and epigenetic transverse valleys of the rising mountains, is a plausible scenario explaining the phylogenetic structure of Scutiger. This hypothesis aligns with the fossil record but conflicts with geoscientific concepts of high elevated Tibetan Plateau since the late Paleogene. Considering a Late-Miocene/Pliocene divergence time, an alternative scenario of dispersal from SE Asia into the East, Central, and West Himalaya cannot be excluded, although essential evolutionary and biogeographic aspects remain unresolved within this model.