Linking physiology, epidemiology, and demography: Understanding how lianas outcompete trees in a changing world.

Extending and safeguarding tropical forest ecosystems is critical for combating climate change and biodiversity loss. One of its constituents, lianas, is spreading and increasing in abundance on a global scale. This is particularly concerning as lianas negatively impact forests' carbon fluxes, dynamics, and overall resilience, potentially exacerbating both crises. While possibly linked to climate-change-induced atmospheric CO elevation and drought intensification, the reasons behind their increasing abundance remain elusive. Prior research shows distinct physiological differences between lianas and trees, but it is unclear whether these differences confer a demographic advantage to lianas with climate change. Guided by extensive datasets collected in Panamanian tropical forests, we developed a tractable model integrating physiology, demography, and epidemiology. Our findings suggest that CO fertilization, a climate change factor promoting forest productivity, gives lianas a demographic advantage. Conversely, factors such as extreme drought generally cause a decrease in liana prevalence. Such a decline in liana prevalence is expected from a physiological point of view because lianas have drought-sensitive traits. However, our analysis underscores the importance of not exclusively relying on physiological processes, as interactions with demographic mechanisms (i.e., the forest structure) can contrast these expectations, causing an increase in lianas with drought. Similarly, our results emphasize that identical physiological responses between lianas and trees still lead to liana increase. Even if lianas exhibit collinear but weaker responses in their performance compared to trees, a temporary liana prevalence increase might manifest driven by the faster response time of lianas imposed by their distinct life-history strategies than trees.