Xiong Huayu
College of Physical Education, Chongqing University of Arts and Sciences, Chongqing, 402160, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Aug 12;14(1):18689. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-69590-2.
This study develops a systematic modeling framework, comprising a prediction model, a super-SBM model, and a spatial autocorrelation analysis model, to explore the spatial-temporal evolution tendencies of development efficiency within China's 30 regions in the low-carbon sports industry from 2006 to 2025. This framework aims to provide theoretical insights for the formulation of more targeted policies. Based on the empirical findings, the main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) The optimal buffer operator grey prediction model demonstrates the highest accuracy among the prediction models examined. (2) The development efficiency curves of the 30 regions exhibit a significant increasing trend from 2006 to 2021, with values generally peaking between 0.4 and 0.6. (3) Notably, the disparity in development efficiency between developed and less developed regions is expected to progressively widen. (4) The development efficiency of the low-carbon sports industry across the 30 regions typically displays high-high clustering and low-low clustering during China's four five-year plan periods. This underscores the importance and urgency of promoting regional coordinated development within the low-carbon sports industry.
本研究构建了一个系统的建模框架，包括一个预测模型、一个超效率SBM模型和一个空间自相关分析模型，以探讨2006年至2025年中国30个地区低碳体育产业发展效率的时空演变趋势。该框架旨在为制定更具针对性的政策提供理论见解。基于实证研究结果，本研究的主要结论如下：（1）在检验的预测模型中，最优缓冲算子灰色预测模型显示出最高的准确性。（2）30个地区的发展效率曲线在2006年至2021年期间呈现出显著的上升趋势，其值一般在0.4至0.6之间达到峰值。（3）值得注意的是，发达地区与欠发达地区之间的发展效率差距预计将逐步扩大。（4）在我国四个五年规划期间，30个地区低碳体育产业的发展效率通常呈现高高集聚和低低集聚。这凸显了促进低碳体育产业区域协调发展的重要性和紧迫性。
