Zhou Lei, Gong Zhimin, Tian Lihui, Chen Zaibi
School of Economics and Management, Hunan University of Science and Engineering, Yongzhou, 425199, China.
Business School of Xiangtan University, Xiangtan, 411105, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Jul 14;10(14):e34545. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e34545. eCollection 2024 Jul 30.
Several research studies globally focus on the volatility of gold and oil prices, neglecting an examination of silver price volatility in relation to other market commodities. The current Covid-19 pandemic has led to various uncertainties and fluctuations in financial and stock exchange markets, yet existing literature primarily concentrates on individual product rates rather than combined rate changes. Our study aims to bridge this research gap by analyzing the relationship between oil rates, silver rates, oil rate transitions, and silver rate transitions on the security exchange in China from 1990 to 2022, using the ARDL approach and Nonlinear ARDL for a comprehensive assessment. The findings reveal a significant impact of silver and oil rates on China's security exchange in the future, with the negative effects of oil rate changes and a positive effect of silver rate transitions. In the short term, oil and silver rates play a crucial role in influencing China's security exchange, highlighting the importance of monitoring these trends for investors. It is recommended that investors respond prudently to market transitions, particularly by considering silver as a secure option during times of uncertainty, while policymakers should implement appropriate measures to manage the rapid fluctuations from oil to the security market.
全球范围内的多项研究聚焦于黄金和石油价格的波动，却忽视了对白银价格波动与其他市场大宗商品关系的考察。当前的新冠疫情导致金融和证券交易所市场出现了各种不确定性和波动，但现有文献主要关注个别产品的价格，而非综合价格变化。我们的研究旨在通过运用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）方法和非线性自回归分布滞后模型，对1990年至2022年中国证券交易所的油价、银价、油价转变和银价转变之间的关系进行分析，以填补这一研究空白，从而进行全面评估。研究结果表明，白银和石油价格未来对中国证券交易所有重大影响，油价变化产生负面影响，银价转变产生正面影响。短期内，石油和白银价格在影响中国证券交易所方面发挥着关键作用，这凸显了投资者监测这些趋势的重要性。建议投资者谨慎应对市场转变，特别是在不确定时期将白银视为一种安全选择，而政策制定者应采取适当措施来应对从石油市场到证券市场的快速波动。
