Shaikh Imlak
Management Development Institute Gurgaon, Mehrauli Road, Sukhrali, Gurugram 122007, Haryana, India.
Resour Policy. 2021 Aug;72:102025. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102025. Epub 2021 Mar 5.
Fear of the disease outbreak news (DONs) has shocked commodity markets and raised the likelihood of economic uncertainty and recession globally. This article examines the unprecedented overreaction of investors sentiments in the commodities such as Crude oil, Gold, Gold Mining, Silver, and the Energy sector. The deadly effects of DONs-COVID-19 in the commodities market have been the worst in history; it appeared the first time higher than the common stock's volatility. Covid-19 induced economic uncertainty has impacted severely through all commodities except the safe-haven Gold (GVZ). Importantly, ETF Options based Implied Volatility Index of Crude (OVX), Silver (VXSLV), and Energy (VXXLE) stocks have crossed the peak level what it was prevailing during the global financial crisis 2008. The unparalleled upsurge of the implied volatility index across all commodities indicates higher demand for the hedge funds to protects the commodity portfolio. ETF options on the commodity act as the best hedge against market uncertainty. Overburden on the put option results in an increased risk premium, henceforth higher expected volatility. ETF options truly measure the investor's fear of predominant in the commodity market.
对疾病爆发新闻(DONs)的恐惧冲击了大宗商品市场,并增加了全球经济不确定性和衰退的可能性。本文研究了投资者在原油、黄金、黄金矿业、白银和能源等大宗商品领域情绪前所未有的过度反应。疾病爆发新闻——新冠疫情在大宗商品市场造成的致命影响堪称历史之最;其首次出现时高于普通股的波动性。新冠疫情引发的经济不确定性除了对避险资产黄金(GVZ)外,对所有大宗商品都产生了严重影响。重要的是,基于交易所交易基金(ETF)期权的原油(OVX)、白银(VXSLV)和能源(VXXLE)股票隐含波动率指数已超过2008年全球金融危机期间的峰值水平。所有大宗商品隐含波动率指数的空前飙升表明对冲基金对保护大宗商品投资组合的需求增加。大宗商品的ETF期权是应对市场不确定性的最佳对冲工具。看跌期权的负担过重导致风险溢价上升,进而预期波动率更高。ETF期权真实地衡量了投资者对大宗商品市场主导情绪的恐惧。