Mining&Energy Research Group, Mining Engineering Department, Karadeniz Technical University, Ortahisar, 61080, Trabzon, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Aug;31(39):52448-52472. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-34654-3. Epub 2024 Aug 16.
In this paper, it is aimed, for the first time, at deriving simple models, leveraging the trend analysis in order to estimate the future greenhouse gas emissions associated with coal combustion. Due to the expectations of becoming the center of global economic development in the future, BRICS-T (Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China, South Africa, and Turkiye) countries are adopted as cases in the study. Following the models' derivation, their statistical validations and estimating accuracies are also tested through various metrics. In addition, the future greenhouse gas emissions associated with coal combustion are estimated by the derived models. The results demonstrate that the derived models can be successfully used as a tool for estimating the greenhouse gas emissions associated with coal combustions with accuracy ranges from at least 90% to almost 98%. Moreover, the estimating results show that the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions associated with coal combustions in the relevant countries and in the world will increase to 14 BtCO and 19 BtCO by 2035, with an annual growth of 2.39% and 1.71%, respectively. In summary, the current study's findings affirm the usefulness of trend analysis in deriving models to estimate greenhouse gas emissions associated with coal combustion.
本文首次旨在利用趋势分析来推导简单模型，以估计与煤炭燃烧相关的未来温室气体排放。由于未来有望成为全球经济发展的中心，金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯联邦、印度、中国、南非和土耳其）被选为研究案例。在推导模型之后，还通过各种指标测试了它们的统计验证和估计精度。此外，还通过推导的模型来估计与煤炭燃烧相关的未来温室气体排放。结果表明，推导的模型可以成功用作估计与煤炭燃烧相关的温室气体排放的工具，其估计精度至少为 90%，最高可达 98%左右。此外，估算结果表明，到 2035 年，相关国家和全球与煤炭燃烧相关的温室气体排放量将分别增加到 140 亿吨二氧化碳和 190 亿吨二氧化碳，年增长率分别为 2.39%和 1.71%。总之，本研究的结果证实了趋势分析在推导模型以估计与煤炭燃烧相关的温室气体排放方面的有用性。
