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痴呆症的社会成本:204 个国家,2000-2019 年。

Societal Costs of Dementia: 204 Countries, 2000-2019.

机构信息

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

出版信息

J Alzheimers Dis. 2024;101(1):277-292. doi: 10.3233/JAD-240163.


DOI:10.3233/JAD-240163
PMID:39150827
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11380273/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Dementia prevalence is expected to increase as populations grow and age. Therefore, additional resources will be needed to meet the global demand for care for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). OBJECTIVE: Estimate global and country-level health care spending attributable to ADRD and the cost of informal care for people living with ADRD. METHODS: We gathered data from three systematic literature reviews and the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to impute estimates for the many countries without underlying data. We projected future costs to 2050 based on past trends in costs, diagnosis rates, and institutionalization rate. RESULTS: We estimated that in 2019, the direct health care spending attributable to ADRD across 204 countries reached $260.6 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 131.6-420.4) and the cost of informal ADRD care was $354.1 billion (95% UI 190.0-544.1). On average, informal care represents 57% (95% UI 38-75%) of the total cost of care. We estimated that direct health care spending attributable to ADRD will reach $1.6 trillion (95% UI 0.6-3.3) in 2050, or 9.4% (95% UI 3.9-19.6%) of projected health spending worldwide. We estimated the cost of informal care will reach $0.9 trillion (95% UI 0.3-1.7) in 2050. CONCLUSIONS: These cost estimates underscore the magnitude of resources needed to ensure sufficient resources for people living with ADRD and highlight the role that informal care plays in provision of their care. Incorporating informal care cost estimates is critical to capture the social cost of ADRD.

摘要

背景:随着人口增长和老龄化,痴呆症的患病率预计将会增加。因此,需要额外的资源来满足全球对阿尔茨海默病和相关痴呆症(ADRD)的护理需求。

目的:估计全球和国家层面与 ADRD 相关的医疗保健支出以及为患有 ADRD 的人提供非正式护理的成本。

方法:我们从三项系统文献综述和 2019 年全球疾病负担研究中收集数据。我们使用时空高斯过程回归来推断许多没有基础数据的国家的估计值。我们根据过去的成本趋势、诊断率和机构化率,预测到 2050 年的未来成本。

结果:我们估计,在 2019 年,全球 204 个国家因 ADRD 而产生的直接医疗保健支出达到 2606 亿美元(95%置信区间[UI]为 1316 亿至 4204 亿美元),非正式 ADRD 护理成本为 3541 亿美元(95%UI 为 1900 亿至 5441 亿美元)。平均而言,非正式护理占护理总成本的 57%(95%UI 为 38%至 75%)。我们估计,到 2050 年,与 ADRD 相关的直接医疗保健支出将达到 1.6 万亿美元(95%UI 为 0.6 亿至 3.3 万亿美元),占全球预计医疗支出的 9.4%(95%UI 为 3.9%至 19.6%)。我们估计,到 2050 年,非正式护理成本将达到 9000 亿美元(95%UI 为 3000 亿至 1.7 万亿美元)。

结论:这些成本估计强调了确保为患有 ADRD 的人提供足够资源所需的资源规模,并突出了非正式护理在提供其护理方面的作用。纳入非正式护理成本估计对于捕捉 ADRD 的社会成本至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1128/11380273/51069211e527/jad-101-jad240163-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1128/11380273/b79467cafe51/jad-101-jad240163-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1128/11380273/59150fd35204/jad-101-jad240163-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1128/11380273/b0470a0ae6b3/jad-101-jad240163-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1128/11380273/51069211e527/jad-101-jad240163-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1128/11380273/b79467cafe51/jad-101-jad240163-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1128/11380273/59150fd35204/jad-101-jad240163-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1128/11380273/b0470a0ae6b3/jad-101-jad240163-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1128/11380273/51069211e527/jad-101-jad240163-g004.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Societal Costs of Dementia: 204 Countries, 2000-2019.

J Alzheimers Dis. 2024

[2]
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[3]
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[4]
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[5]
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[6]
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[7]
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[8]
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[9]
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[10]
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引用本文的文献

[1]
Healthcare Complexities in Neurodegenerative Proteinopathies: A Narrative Review.

Healthcare (Basel). 2025-7-31

[2]
Strengthening Africa's brain health and economic resilience.

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[3]
Economic Evaluations of Speech and Language Therapy Interventions: A Scoping Review.

Int J Lang Commun Disord. 2025

[4]
Reforming pensions in Africa: Addressing coverage, payout disparities, and dementia outcomes for sustainable aging.

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[5]
Could a Mediterranean Diet Modulate Alzheimer's Disease Progression? The Role of Gut Microbiota and Metabolite Signatures in Neurodegeneration.

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[6]
Oral Health Status and Factors Associated with Oral Health in Patients with Alzheimer's Disease: A Matched Case-Control Observational Study.

J Clin Med. 2025-2-20

[7]
Scam susceptibility is associated with a markedly accelerated onset of Alzheimer's disease dementia.

Alzheimers Dement. 2025-3

本文引用的文献

[1]
Cross-country variations in the caregiver role: evidence from the ENTWINE-iCohort study.

BMC Public Health. 2024-3-26

[2]
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Lancet. 2024-5-18

[3]
Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026.

Lancet Glob Health. 2023-3

[4]
The worldwide costs of dementia in 2019.

Alzheimers Dement. 2023-7

[5]
Patterns and Determinants of Multimorbidity in Older Adults: Study in Health-Ecological Perspective.

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022-12-14

[6]
Global and regional projections of the economic burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias from 2019 to 2050: A value of statistical life approach.

EClinicalMedicine. 2022-7-22

[7]
Measuring the availability of human resources for health and its relationship to universal health coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Lancet. 2022-6-4

[8]
Global and regional spending on dementia care from 2000-2019 and expected future health spending scenarios from 2020-2050: An economic modelling exercise.

EClinicalMedicine. 2022-3-13

[9]
Projecting the long-term societal value of a disease-modifying treatment for Alzheimer's disease in the United States.

Alzheimers Dement. 2022-1

[10]
Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Lancet Public Health. 2022-2

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