Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
J Alzheimers Dis. 2024;101(1):277-292. doi: 10.3233/JAD-240163.
BACKGROUND: Dementia prevalence is expected to increase as populations grow and age. Therefore, additional resources will be needed to meet the global demand for care for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). OBJECTIVE: Estimate global and country-level health care spending attributable to ADRD and the cost of informal care for people living with ADRD. METHODS: We gathered data from three systematic literature reviews and the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to impute estimates for the many countries without underlying data. We projected future costs to 2050 based on past trends in costs, diagnosis rates, and institutionalization rate. RESULTS: We estimated that in 2019, the direct health care spending attributable to ADRD across 204 countries reached $260.6 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 131.6-420.4) and the cost of informal ADRD care was $354.1 billion (95% UI 190.0-544.1). On average, informal care represents 57% (95% UI 38-75%) of the total cost of care. We estimated that direct health care spending attributable to ADRD will reach $1.6 trillion (95% UI 0.6-3.3) in 2050, or 9.4% (95% UI 3.9-19.6%) of projected health spending worldwide. We estimated the cost of informal care will reach $0.9 trillion (95% UI 0.3-1.7) in 2050. CONCLUSIONS: These cost estimates underscore the magnitude of resources needed to ensure sufficient resources for people living with ADRD and highlight the role that informal care plays in provision of their care. Incorporating informal care cost estimates is critical to capture the social cost of ADRD.
背景:随着人口增长和老龄化,痴呆症的患病率预计将会增加。因此,需要额外的资源来满足全球对阿尔茨海默病和相关痴呆症(ADRD)的护理需求。
目的:估计全球和国家层面与 ADRD 相关的医疗保健支出以及为患有 ADRD 的人提供非正式护理的成本。
方法:我们从三项系统文献综述和 2019 年全球疾病负担研究中收集数据。我们使用时空高斯过程回归来推断许多没有基础数据的国家的估计值。我们根据过去的成本趋势、诊断率和机构化率,预测到 2050 年的未来成本。
结果:我们估计,在 2019 年,全球 204 个国家因 ADRD 而产生的直接医疗保健支出达到 2606 亿美元(95%置信区间[UI]为 1316 亿至 4204 亿美元),非正式 ADRD 护理成本为 3541 亿美元(95%UI 为 1900 亿至 5441 亿美元)。平均而言,非正式护理占护理总成本的 57%(95%UI 为 38%至 75%)。我们估计,到 2050 年,与 ADRD 相关的直接医疗保健支出将达到 1.6 万亿美元(95%UI 为 0.6 亿至 3.3 万亿美元),占全球预计医疗支出的 9.4%(95%UI 为 3.9%至 19.6%)。我们估计,到 2050 年,非正式护理成本将达到 9000 亿美元(95%UI 为 3000 亿至 1.7 万亿美元)。
结论:这些成本估计强调了确保为患有 ADRD 的人提供足够资源所需的资源规模,并突出了非正式护理在提供其护理方面的作用。纳入非正式护理成本估计对于捕捉 ADRD 的社会成本至关重要。
J Alzheimers Dis. 2024
Alzheimers Dement. 2017-1
Expert Rev Pharmacoecon Outcomes Res. 2017-4
PLoS One. 2018-11-12
Alzheimers Dement. 2021-3
Healthcare (Basel). 2025-7-31
Nat Med. 2025-8-7
Int J Lang Commun Disord. 2025
Alzheimers Dement. 2025-3
BMC Public Health. 2024-3-26
Alzheimers Dement. 2023-7
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022-12-14