Incidence of de novo malignancy and all-cause mortality among heart transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND

Heart transplant recipients develop cancer at two-times the rate compared to the general population. However, the incidence and mortality rates and the adjusted association between cancer and mortality remains unclear.

METHODS

We estimated the incidence and mortality rates and the adjusted association between developing cancer (any, skin, hematologic, and solid tumor subtypes) and the all-cause mortality rates among adult heart transplant recipients from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients from October 1, 1987, until June 28, 2020.

RESULTS

Among 51,597 adult heart transplant recipients, 13,191 (25.6%) were diagnosed with de novo malignancy throughout the follow-up period. The cumulative incidence cancer at years 1, 5, 10, and 20 was 3%, 16.4%, 32.8%, and 56.6%, respectively. Among those with cancer, the cumulative mortality was 17.5%, 42.3%, 65%, and 91% at years 1, 5, 10, and 20, respectively. The incidence rate of any de novo malignancy was 38.7 cases per 1000 person-years and the mortality rate (for those with cancer) was 115.2 cases per 1000 person-years. Compared to those without cancer, those with cancer had a higher adjusted mortality association [HR: 2.14 (2.07, 2.21)]. The strongest associations were estimated for pancreatic [10.63 (8.34, 13.54)], leukemia [8.06 (4.33, 15.00)], and esophagus [6.94 (5.43, 8.87)] malignancies. The association between de novo malignancies and mortality was higher in the earlier years of follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Compared to not developing cancer, those with de novo malignancy have a 2-fold higher mortality rate, on average. The strength of the association varies by cancer subtype and by follow-up time.