Fose Nande, Singh Arvind R, Krishnamurthy Senthil, Ratshitanga Mukovhe, Moodley Prathaban
Department of Electrical , Electronics and Computer Engineering, Cape Peninsula University of Technology, Bellville Campus, South Africa.
South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI), South Africa.
Heliyon. 2024 Jul 22;10(15):e34800. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e34800. eCollection 2024 Aug 15.
Effective management of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and optimization of grid operations are crucial responsibilities of Distribution System Operators (DSOs). Hence, this comprehensive critical review aims to analyze the current state of DER forecasting practices for DSOs and their implications for achieving the SDG goals. These goals underscore the significance of clean and accessible energy, advancements in infrastructure, sustainable urban development, climate change mitigation, and collaborative partnerships. The review's core focuses on the DER forecasting techniques employed by DSOs. It explores various aspects, including data collection methods, load forecasting models, DER generation forecasting, aggregation and integration techniques, and the role of advanced technologies like machine learning and artificial intelligence. The review highlights the critical role of accurate DER forecasts in optimizing grid operations, managing energy flows, and facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources. Furthermore, the review examines the implications of DER forecasting for DSOs in achieving the SDGs. It discusses how DER forecasting facilitates the transition to affordable and clean energy, enhances industry innovation and infrastructure, builds sustainable cities and communities, drives climate action efforts, and fosters stakeholder partnerships. However, the review also identifies challenges and limitations in DER forecasting, including data availability, forecasting accuracy, uncertainty management, and regulatory barriers. It emphasizes further research and development in improved forecasting algorithms, advanced data analytics, and enhanced communication and coordination mechanisms. Finally, this comprehensive critical review highlights the importance of DER forecasting for DSOs in achieving the SDGs. Accurate forecasting can promote sustainable and clean energy practices, drive innovation, build resilient communities, mitigate climate change, and foster collaborative partnerships. The review emphasizes the necessity of advancing DER forecasting techniques and addressing associated challenges to fully realize the potential of DERs in contributing to a sustainable and inclusive future. This comprehensive critical review aims to analyze the current state of DER forecasting practices for DSOs and their implications for achieving the SDG goals. As Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) play an increasingly significant role in the transition to sustainable energy systems, accurate forecasting techniques are essential for optimizing grid operations and facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources. By effectively managing DERs, Distribution System Operators (DSOs) contribute to the advancement of several SDGs, including affordable and clean energy (SDG 7), sustainable infrastructure (SDG 9), climate action (SDG 13), and partnerships for the goals (SDG 17). This review explores the intersection of DER forecasting with the SDGs, highlighting how forecasting initiatives can support national and global efforts toward sustainable development by providing insights into energy demand, grid stability, and renewable energy integration. The goals and targets are derived from an analysis of current trends and the identification of potential development scenarios by 2030. Both optimistic and pessimistic projections are utilized for communicating with the general public and national governments concerning DSM network planning. Utilizing data from various nations enables the identification of effective strategies and the prediction of similar trends in other areas. Simultaneously, the magnitude of activities related to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) enables the improvement and efficient organization of data gathering on a global basis. This, in turn, provides a foundation for future forecasting endeavours.
有效管理分布式能源资源(DERs)以及优化电网运行是配电系统运营商(DSOs)的关键职责。因此,本次全面的批判性综述旨在分析DSOs的DER预测实践现状及其对实现可持续发展目标(SDGs)的影响。这些目标强调了清洁且可获取的能源、基础设施的进步、可持续城市发展、缓解气候变化以及合作伙伴关系的重要性。该综述的核心聚焦于DSOs所采用的DER预测技术。它探讨了各个方面,包括数据收集方法、负荷预测模型、DER发电预测、聚合与整合技术,以及机器学习和人工智能等先进技术的作用。该综述强调了准确的DER预测在优化电网运行、管理能量流以及促进可再生能源整合方面的关键作用。此外,该综述考察了DER预测对DSOs实现可持续发展目标的影响。它讨论了DER预测如何促进向可负担且清洁能源的转型、增强行业创新与基础设施、建设可持续城市和社区、推动气候行动努力以及促进利益相关者伙伴关系。然而,该综述也指出了DER预测中的挑战和局限,包括数据可用性、预测准确性、不确定性管理以及监管障碍。它强调在改进预测算法、先进数据分析以及增强通信与协调机制方面需要进一步开展研究与开发。最后,本次全面的批判性综述强调了DER预测对DSOs实现可持续发展目标的重要性。准确的预测能够促进可持续和清洁能源实践、推动创新、建设有韧性的社区、缓解气候变化以及促进合作伙伴关系。该综述强调了推进DER预测技术并应对相关挑战的必要性,以充分发挥DERs在为可持续和包容性未来做出贡献方面的潜力。本次全面的批判性综述旨在分析DSOs的DER预测实践现状及其对实现可持续发展目标的影响。随着分布式能源资源(DERs)在向可持续能源系统转型中发挥越来越重要的作用,准确的预测技术对于优化电网运行和促进可再生能源整合至关重要。通过有效管理DERs,配电系统运营商(DSOs)为推进多个可持续发展目标做出贡献,包括可负担且清洁能源(可持续发展目标7)、可持续基础设施(可持续发展目标9)、气候行动(可持续发展目标13)以及为实现这些目标的伙伴关系(可持续发展目标17)。本综述探讨了DER预测与可持续发展目标的交叉点,强调预测举措如何通过提供有关能源需求、电网稳定性和可再生能源整合的见解来支持国家和全球的可持续发展努力。这些目标和指标源自对当前趋势的分析以及对2030年潜在发展情景的识别。乐观和悲观的预测均用于与公众和各国政府就需求侧管理(DSM)网络规划进行沟通。利用来自不同国家的数据能够确定有效策略并预测其他地区的类似趋势。同时,与可持续发展目标(SDGs)相关活动的规模能够在全球范围内改进并高效组织数据收集。这反过来又为未来的预测工作奠定了基础。