Ayele Zikargie Yidneckachew, Cochrane Logan
Hawassa University, College of Law and Governance, School of Law, Hawassa, Ethiopia.
HBKU, College of Public Policy, Hawassa University, IPDR, Doha Qatar.
Heliyon. 2024 Jul 22;10(15):e35021. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e35021. eCollection 2024 Aug 15.
The political and economic narrative has shifted from developmentalism to the homegrown economy in post-2018 Ethiopia, but maintains the hegemony of the developmental state project of nation-building. This article investigates the shift to homegrown economic narratives, assesses the alignment with macroeconomic data and various sources and their implications. The narrative seeks an endogenous growth model and emphasizes macroeconomic stability, industrialization, private-sector growth, and contributions of key sectors for economic transformation. In some respect of industrialization and macro-financial stability, the macroeconomic data align with the reform narratives. However, agricultural productivity, export diversification, and dependency on imports remain critical challenges of the economy and implicate structural issues of the reform. Several factors, mainly civil war, Covid-19 and climate change, complicate this economic landscape. The article underlines a sustainable and inclusive growth in Ethiopia requires greater transparency and revisiting the assumptions and implications of the homegrown economic narratives.
2018年后的埃塞俄比亚，政治和经济叙事已从发展主义转向本土经济，但仍维持着国家建设发展型国家项目的霸权地位。本文研究向本土经济叙事的转变，评估其与宏观经济数据及各种来源的契合度及其影响。这种叙事寻求内生增长模式，并强调宏观经济稳定、工业化、私营部门增长以及关键部门对经济转型的贡献。在工业化和宏观金融稳定的某些方面，宏观经济数据与改革叙事相符。然而，农业生产率、出口多样化以及对进口的依赖仍然是经济的关键挑战，并暗示了改革的结构性问题。主要是内战、新冠疫情和气候变化等几个因素使这一经济局面变得复杂。文章强调，埃塞俄比亚实现可持续和包容性增长需要更高的透明度，并重新审视本土经济叙事的假设和影响。
